Water Whirlpool MillTier 2
at Ascent Las Vegas
decks
11
(3.4% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
86
38-39-9
overall winrate
49.4%
ELO-adjusted winrate
54.0%
avg ELO +1.3 per match
expected value
50.6%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
52.9%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1304
· median 1343
· range 994–1428
(11 pilots with an ELO rating)
994
Q1 1218
Q3 1417
1694
18% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
27% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Razorgale | 9.8% | 12 | 6-5-1 | 54.2% | 53.1% | 63.8% | +5.9 |
| Water Genbu | 5.8% | 5 | 1-4-0 | 20.0% | 33.3% | 33.1% | -9.7 |
| Fire Oblation | 5.5% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 68.4% | +17.6 |
| Water Aetherwing | 5.2% | 6 | 0-5-1 | 8.3% | 25.0% | 29.8% | -10.8 |
| Fire Slimes | 4.6% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 59.1% | +8.7 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 4.0% | 4 | 3-1-0 | 75.0% | 62.5% | 64.1% | +9.0 |
| Water Exia | 4.0% | 5 | 3-1-1 | 70.0% | 61.1% | 68.8% | +10.8 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 4.0% | 5 | 1-2-2 | 40.0% | 44.4% | 44.6% | -3.1 |
| Fire Aggro | 3.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.4% | +10.2 |
| Fire Aetherwing | 3.4% | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 54.8% | +3.6 |
| Fire Suzaku | 3.4% | 4 | 2-2-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 52.1% | +1.3 |
| Water Fractal | 3.4% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 51.8% | +1.8 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 3.1% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 69.7% | +18.9 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 3.1% | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 45.9% | -3.1 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 2.8% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.5% | -15.2 |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 2.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 2.5% | 5 | 0-5-0 | 0.0% | 22.2% | 23.2% | -15.5 |
| Fire Suited | 2.2% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 51.2% | +1.2 |
| Horse and Taxes | 2.2% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.9% | +0.9 |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 2.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.0% | +16.1 |
| Fire Exia | 1.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Chess | 1.2% | 2 | 1-0-1 | 75.0% | 58.3% | 51.4% | +1.3 |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 1.2% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 48.0% | -3.1 |
| Water Luxem Assassin | 1.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 65.0% | +24.0 |
| Wind Arcane | 1.2% | 3 | 3-0-0 | 100.0% | 71.4% | 73.4% | +17.5 |
| Water Astra Ranger | 0.9% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 36.3% | -21.9 |
| Water Neos | 0.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Arcane | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Mage | 0.6% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 47.4% | -4.1 |
| Water Tera Cleric | 0.6% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 42.4% | -12.2 |
| Water Tera Diao Chan | 0.6% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 26.9% | -22.2 |
| Water Tera Kongming | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Mage | 0.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 63.5% | +21.6 |
| Wind Neos | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Slimes | 0.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.2% | +8.2 |
| Fire Alice | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Arisanna | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crescendo | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Merlin | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Tera Cleric | 0.3% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 53.8% | +6.1 |
| Fire Tera Mage | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Alice | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Ciel | 0.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 63.5% | +21.6 |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Norm Silvie | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Byakko | 0.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 47.4% | -4.1 |
| Water Chess | 0.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 33.6% | -26.2 |
| Water Crux Lorraine | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Slimes | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Guardian | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Allies | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Byakko | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Diana | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Exia | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Luxem Assassin | 0.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 64.4% | +23.0 |
Decklists · 11 from this event
The 11 public Water Whirlpool Mill decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
Mirror Analysis
In 5 mirror matches, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 5 mirrors is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
Winners more often ran: Benediction Angel, Angelic Channeling, Spirit of Serene Water. Losers more often ran: Void's Cloak, Crimson Prescience, Enchanted Fete.
Benediction Angel
Winning decks ran 3.0
copies on average,
losing decks 2.2.
Of 5 mirrors: the winner ran more in
3, the loser ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 1.
Angelic Channeling
Winning decks ran 2.2
copies on average,
losing decks 1.6.
Of 5 mirrors: the winner ran more in
2, the loser ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 2.
Spirit of Serene Water
Winning decks ran 0.8
copies on average,
losing decks 0.6.
Of 5 mirrors: the winner ran more in
2, the loser ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 2.
Safeguard Amulet
Winning decks ran 0.4
copies on average,
losing decks 0.2.
Of 5 mirrors: the winner ran more in
2, the loser ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 2.
Fractal of Waves
Winning decks ran 1.6
copies on average,
losing decks 0.8.
Of 5 mirrors: the winner ran more in
2, the loser ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 2.
Void's Cloak
Losing decks ran 0.8
copies on average,
winning decks 0.4.
Of 5 mirrors: the loser ran more in
3, the winner ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 1.
Crimson Prescience
Losing decks ran 2.2
copies on average,
winning decks 1.2.
Of 5 mirrors: the loser ran more in
3, the winner ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 1.
Enchanted Fete
Losing decks ran 1.6
copies on average,
winning decks 0.6.
Of 5 mirrors: the loser ran more in
3, the winner ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 1.
Regenerate
Losing decks ran 3.2
copies on average,
winning decks 2.2.
Of 5 mirrors: the loser ran more in
3, the winner ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 1.
Engulf
Losing decks ran 3.4
copies on average,
winning decks 3.4.
Of 5 mirrors: the loser ran more in
2, the winner ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 2.
Spirit of Fortuitous Water
Losing decks ran 0.4
copies on average,
winning decks 0.2.
Of 5 mirrors: the loser ran more in
2, the winner ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 2.
Show all 108 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 88 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Void's Cloak | -0.40 | 1 | 3 | 1 | |
| Angel Attendant | +0.40 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Crimson Prescience | -0.40 | 1 | 3 | 1 | |
| Benediction Angel | +0.40 | 3 | 1 | 1 | |
| Enchanted Fete | -0.40 | 1 | 3 | 0 | |
| Regenerate | -0.40 | 1 | 3 | 1 | |
| Huaji of Heaven's Rise | -0.20 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Angelic Channeling | +0.20 | 2 | 1 | 1 | |
| Engulf | -0.20 | 1 | 2 | 2 | |
| Dungeon Guide | -0.20 | 0 | 1 | 4 | |
| Spirit of Fortuitous Water | -0.20 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Spirit of Serene Water | +0.20 | 2 | 1 | 2 | |
| Scarlet Tassel | +0.20 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Rictus Tiding | -0.20 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Expel the Departed | -0.20 | 2 | 3 | 0 | |
| Fracturize | -0.20 | 0 | 1 | 4 | |
| Chime of Endless Dreams | +0.20 | 1 | 0 | 4 | |
| Nullifying Lantern | -0.20 | 2 | 3 | 0 | |
| Chalice of Blood | -0.20 | 1 | 2 | 2 | |
| Shademist Priestess | -0.20 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Hemorrhaging Rend | -0.20 | 2 | 3 | 0 | |
| Relentless Outburst | -0.20 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Regal Inquisition | -0.20 | 1 | 2 | 2 | |
| Exia Sight | +0.20 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Blanche, Sheltering Saint | +0.20 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Cerulean Decree | -0.20 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Spalling Cleanse | +0.20 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Tabula of Salvage | +0.20 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Safeguard Amulet | +0.20 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Crimson Rupture | -0.20 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Fractal of Waves | +0.20 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Golden Checkmate | +0.20 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Innervate Knowledge | +0.20 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Memento Pocketwatch | +0.20 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Golden Gambit | +0.20 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Golden Pawn | +0.20 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Surging Obstruction | +0.20 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Freezing Gambit | +0.20 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Throne-Keeper Bullfrog | +0.20 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Scepter of Lumina | +0.20 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Alice, Trifle's Royalty | +0.20 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Alice, Whim's Monarch | +0.20 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Doubled Pawns | +0.20 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| March On | +0.20 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Crystallized Destiny | +0.20 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Weiss Bishop | +0.20 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Golden Bishop | +0.20 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Summon Pawn | +0.20 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Tariff Ring | +0.20 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Dropped Band | +0.20 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Ducal Seal | +0.20 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Alice, Golden Queen | +0.20 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Art of War | +0.20 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Water Resonance Bauble | +0.20 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Fire Resonance Bauble | +0.20 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Return to the Archive | +0.20 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Viridian Protective Trinket | +0.20 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Proof of Life | +0.20 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Wind Resonance Bauble | +0.20 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Nullifying Mirror | +0.20 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Diamond Ribbon | -0.20 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Kongming, Fel Eidolon | -0.20 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Coronal of Rejuvenation | -0.20 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Imperial Countermeasure | -0.20 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Hydroguard Retainer | -0.20 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Enfeebling Orb | -0.20 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Yudi, Gossamer Jade | -0.20 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fan of Seven Debts | -0.20 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Acquiescing Rejection | -0.20 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Xukong, Shifted Fates | -0.20 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Ceasing Edict | -0.20 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Kongming, Wayward Maven | -0.20 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Covenant of Thorns | -0.20 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Frostsworn Paladin | -0.20 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Ruinous Pillars of Qidao | -0.20 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Tricastles of Lucenia | -0.20 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Kongming, Ascetic Vice | -0.20 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Tera Sight | -0.20 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Coriolis Ward | -0.20 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Morgan, Soul Guide | -0.20 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fount Seraphim | -0.20 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Four of Diamonds | -0.20 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Magnificent Banquet | -0.20 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Refracting Missile | -0.20 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Sempiternal Sage | -0.20 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Wand of Frost | -0.20 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Song of Frost | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 1 | |
| Resolute Stand | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 0 | |
| Fragmented Spirit of Water | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Eventide Spear | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 0 | |
| Jin, Zealous Maverick | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 3 | |
| Tome of Abyssal Heaven | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| Jin, Fate Defiant | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 3 | |
| Gentle Respite | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Lost Providence | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 2 | |
| Shuang Ji of Sacrifice | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 3 | |
| Seething Intercession | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 3 | |
| Pearled Prayer | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 3 | |
| Turbo Charge | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Transfusive Aura | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 3 | |
| Berserker Plate | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 3 | |
| Quicksilver Grail | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| Jin, Undying Resolve | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 3 | |
| Bauble of Abundance | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| Mend Flesh | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 3 | |
| Enrage | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 3 | |
| Topsy Decree | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 0 | |
| Spirit of Water | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 1 |