Fire AggroTier 2
at Ascent Las Vegas
Pilot Skill ↓ low
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Razorgale | 9.8% | 7 | 3-4-0 | 42.9% | 45.5% | 55.9% | +3.0 |
| Water Genbu | 5.8% | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 46.0% | -3.0 |
| Fire Oblation | 5.5% | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 54.5% | +3.3 |
| Water Aetherwing | 5.2% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 35.2% | -14.2 |
| Fire Slimes | 4.6% | 4 | 2-2-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 55.3% | +3.4 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 4.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 34.0% | -25.6 |
| Water Exia | 4.0% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 55.1% | +4.9 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 4.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 62.1% | +19.4 |
| Fire Aetherwing | 3.4% | 6 | 1-5-0 | 16.7% | 30.0% | 31.7% | -9.7 |
| Fire Suzaku | 3.4% | 7 | 2-5-0 | 28.6% | 36.4% | 46.6% | -1.7 |
| Water Fractal | 3.4% | 7 | 4-3-0 | 57.1% | 54.5% | 64.1% | +7.1 |
| Water Whirlpool Mill | 3.4% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 43.6% | -10.2 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 3.1% | 5 | 4-1-0 | 80.0% | 66.7% | 64.7% | +8.4 |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 3.1% | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 47.8% | -1.6 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 3.1% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 35.6% | -13.8 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 2.8% | 4 | 1-3-0 | 25.0% | 37.5% | 41.2% | -5.6 |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 2.5% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 53.4% | +3.3 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 2.5% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 49.7% | -0.3 |
| Fire Suited | 2.2% | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 49.3% | -0.5 |
| Horse and Taxes | 2.2% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 33.8% | -15.6 |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 2.2% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 29.8% | -19.4 |
| Fire Exia | 1.5% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 39.2% | -17.3 |
| Chess | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 1.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 36.4% | -21.8 |
| Water Luxem Assassin | 1.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 63.1% | +21.0 |
| Wind Arcane | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Ranger | 0.9% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.8% | -14.8 |
| Water Neos | 0.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Arcane | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Mage | 0.6% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 57.4% | +7.1 |
| Water Tera Cleric | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Diao Chan | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Kongming | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Mage | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Neos | 0.6% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 38.9% | -17.7 |
| Wind Slimes | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Alice | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Arisanna | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crescendo | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Merlin | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Tera Cleric | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Tera Mage | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Alice | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Ciel | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Norm Silvie | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Byakko | 0.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 67.2% | +27.6 |
| Water Chess | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Lorraine | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Slimes | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Guardian | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Allies | 0.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.2% | -15.7 |
| Wind Byakko | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Diana | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Exia | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Luxem Assassin | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 12 from this event
The 12 public Fire Aggro decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
Mirror Analysis
In 1 mirror match, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 1 mirror is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 1 mirror we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 52 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 52 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vermilion Decree | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Molten Echo | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Reduce to Ash | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Merlin, Memorite Vassal | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Veteran Blazebearer | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Water Resonance Bauble | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Fire Resonance Bauble | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Viridian Protective Trinket | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Heated Vengeance | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Varuckan Soulknife | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Rococo, Explosive Maven | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Grand Crusader's Ring | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Liminal Guide | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Forgelight Blade | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Smoke Out | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Hone by Fire | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Unyielding Wraithguard | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Sword of Seeking | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Intensified Pyre | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Three of Hearts | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Demolition | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Xiao Qiao, Cinderkeeper | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Flickering Afterglow | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Creative Shock | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Clarent, Reimagined | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Prismspire Scepter | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Peppered Chef | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Wind Resonance Bauble | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Hasty Messenger | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Dazzling Courtesan | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Sword Saint's Vow | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Blazing Throw | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Crystallized Destiny | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Fiery Momentum | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Varuckan Acolyte | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Safeguard Amulet | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Immolation Trap | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Clumsy Apprentice | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Quicksilver Grail | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Corhazi Courier | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Incapacitate | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Tweedledum, Rattled Dancer | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Clarent, Sword of Peace | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Fiery Interference | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Rending Flames | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Lorraine, Wandering Warrior | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Nullifying Mirror | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Poisoned Dagger | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| March Hare, Mottled Host | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Tempered Steel | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Impact Hammer | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Varuck, Smoldering Spire | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 |