Water GenbuTier 1

at Ascent Las Vegas

decks

19 (5.8% of field)

matches (non-mirror)

158 79-67-12

overall winrate

53.8%

ELO-adjusted winrate

53.6% avg ELO +1.2 per match

expected value

52.0% share-weighted (raw)

EV (ELO-adj)

52.3% share-weighted (skill-controlled)

Pilot Skill · average

mean ELO 1369 · median 1407 · range 1185–1550 (19 pilots with an ELO rating)

994 Q1 1218 Q3 1417 1694

37% of pilots are in the field's top quartile, 21% in the bottom.

Head-to-Head Matchups

Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.

Opponent	Their share	Matches	W-L-D	Raw WR	Shrunk WR	Adj WR	ELO Δ/match
Wind Razorgale	9.8%	16	5-10-1	34.4%	37.5%	38.8%	-4.5
Fire Oblation	5.5%	17	7-10-0	41.2%	42.9%	37.8%	-4.8
Water Aetherwing	5.2%	15	9-4-2	66.7%	63.2%	70.0%	+8.1
Fire Slimes	4.6%	5	3-2-0	60.0%	55.6%	51.9%	+1.1
Fire Crux Lorraine	4.0%	7	5-1-1	78.6%	68.2%	78.7%	+14.4
Water Exia	4.0%	5	4-1-0	80.0%	66.7%	69.2%	+11.1
Wind Seiryuu	4.0%	8	2-4-2	37.5%	41.7%	39.4%	-5.1
Fire Aggro	3.7%	3	2-1-0	66.7%	57.1%	54.0%	+3.0
Fire Aetherwing	3.4%	7	6-1-0	85.7%	72.7%	71.0%	+10.6
Fire Suzaku	3.4%	9	2-7-0	22.2%	30.8%	21.7%	-13.1
Water Fractal	3.4%	3	1-2-0	33.3%	42.9%	44.3%	-4.3
Water Whirlpool Mill	3.4%	5	4-1-0	80.0%	66.7%	66.9%	+9.7
Fire Luxem Assassin	3.1%	7	3-4-0	42.9%	45.5%	53.2%	+1.6
Wind Crux Lorraine	3.1%	3	3-0-0	100.0%	71.4%	73.5%	+17.6
Wind Shadowstrike	3.1%	6	3-2-1	58.3%	55.0%	58.1%	+4.3
Fire Crux Mage	2.8%	5	2-3-0	40.0%	44.4%	51.2%	+0.7
Fire Firebloom Burn	2.5%	3	2-1-0	66.7%	57.1%	60.0%	+7.5
Wind Astra Cleric	2.5%	4	2-1-1	62.5%	56.2%	50.7%	+0.5
Fire Suited	2.2%	5	0-5-0	0.0%	22.2%	10.1%	-23.0
Horse and Taxes	2.2%	3	1-0-2	66.7%	57.1%	57.6%	+5.7
Wind Wakeup Combo	2.2%	3	1-1-1	50.0%	50.0%	50.2%	+0.2
Fire Exia	1.5%	3	2-1-0	66.7%	57.1%	55.7%	+4.3
Chess	1.2%	1	1-0-0	100.0%	60.0%	61.3%	+18.1
Fire Umbra Guardian	1.2%	1	0-1-0	0.0%	40.0%	41.3%	-14.0
Water Luxem Assassin	1.2%	0	—	—	—	—	—
Wind Arcane	1.2%	0	—	—	—	—	—
Water Astra Ranger	0.9%	0	—	—	—	—	—
Water Neos	0.9%	1	1-0-0	100.0%	60.0%	63.2%	+21.1
Fire Arcane	0.6%	1	0-1-0	0.0%	40.0%	39.6%	-16.7
Water Crux Mage	0.6%	1	1-0-0	100.0%	60.0%	53.6%	+5.7
Water Tera Cleric	0.6%	0	—	—	—	—	—
Water Tera Diao Chan	0.6%	1	0-1-0	0.0%	40.0%	42.5%	-11.9
Water Tera Kongming	0.6%	3	0-2-1	16.7%	35.7%	28.8%	-15.9
Water Tera Mage	0.6%	0	—	—	—	—	—
Wind Neos	0.6%	0	—	—	—	—	—
Wind Slimes	0.6%	0	—	—	—	—	—
Fire Alice	0.3%	0	—	—	—	—	—
Fire Arisanna	0.3%	1	1-0-0	100.0%	60.0%	65.9%	+25.4
Fire Crescendo	0.3%	0	—	—	—	—	—
Fire Crux Merlin	0.3%	0	—	—	—	—	—
Fire Tera Cleric	0.3%	0	—	—	—	—	—
Fire Tera Mage	0.3%	1	1-0-0	100.0%	60.0%	60.3%	+16.5
Fire Umbra Alice	0.3%	0	—	—	—	—	—
Fire Umbra Ciel	0.3%	0	—	—	—	—	—
Fire Umbra Ranger	0.3%	0	—	—	—	—	—
Norm Silvie	0.3%	0	—	—	—	—	—
Water Allies	0.3%	2	2-0-0	100.0%	66.7%	65.2%	+14.6
Water Byakko	0.3%	0	—	—	—	—	—
Water Chess	0.3%	0	—	—	—	—	—
Water Crux Lorraine	0.3%	0	—	—	—	—	—
Water Ravishing Mill	0.3%	0	—	—	—	—	—
Water Slimes	0.3%	1	1-0-0	100.0%	60.0%	56.2%	+9.9
Water Umbra Guardian	0.3%	0	—	—	—	—	—
Wind Allies	0.3%	0	—	—	—	—	—
Wind Byakko	0.3%	1	1-0-0	100.0%	60.0%	62.1%	+19.3
Wind Diana	0.3%	1	1-0-0	100.0%	60.0%	55.2%	+8.4
Wind Exia	0.3%	0	—	—	—	—	—
Wind Luxem Assassin	0.3%	0	—	—	—	—	—

Decklists · 19 from this event

The 19 public Water Genbu decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.

Mirror Analysis

In 8 mirror matches, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down).

Winners more often ran: Diamond Ribbon, Shademist Priestess, Quicksilver Grail. Losers more often ran: Unbroken Mustang, Enfeebling Orb, Expel the Departed.

↑ Played more by winners

Diamond Ribbon

Winning decks ran 0.9 copies on average, losing decks 0.6.

Of 8 mirrors: the winner ran more in 3, the loser ran more in 1, both ran the same in 4.

Shademist Priestess

Winning decks ran 2.4 copies on average, losing decks 1.6.

Of 8 mirrors: the winner ran more in 5, the loser ran more in 3, both ran the same in 0.

Quicksilver Grail

Winning decks ran 0.4 copies on average, losing decks 0.1.

Of 8 mirrors: the winner ran more in 3, the loser ran more in 1, both ran the same in 4.

Song of Frost

Winning decks ran 3.2 copies on average, losing decks 3.1.

Of 8 mirrors: the winner ran more in 3, the loser ran more in 2, both ran the same in 3.

Engulf

Winning decks ran 2.9 copies on average, losing decks 2.8.

Of 8 mirrors: the winner ran more in 4, the loser ran more in 3, both ran the same in 1.

Tideholder Claymore

Winning decks ran 0.2 copies on average, losing decks 0.1.

Of 8 mirrors: the winner ran more in 2, the loser ran more in 1, both ran the same in 5.

↓ Played more by losers

Unbroken Mustang

Losing decks ran 3.0 copies on average, winning decks 2.6.

Of 8 mirrors: the loser ran more in 3, the winner ran more in 0, both ran the same in 5.