Fire SlimesTier 2
at Ascent Las Vegas
Pilot Skill ↓ low
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Razorgale | 9.8% | 13 | 4-8-1 | 34.6% | 38.2% | 37.8% | -5.1 |
| Water Genbu | 5.8% | 5 | 2-3-0 | 40.0% | 44.4% | 48.1% | -1.1 |
| Fire Oblation | 5.5% | 4 | 2-2-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 45.8% | -2.7 |
| Water Aetherwing | 5.2% | 4 | 1-2-1 | 37.5% | 43.8% | 57.4% | +4.8 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 4.0% | 2 | 0-1-1 | 25.0% | 41.7% | 41.6% | -8.0 |
| Water Exia | 4.0% | 3 | 0-3-0 | 0.0% | 28.6% | 33.8% | -12.1 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 4.0% | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 38.0% | -9.0 |
| Fire Aggro | 3.7% | 4 | 2-2-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 44.7% | -3.4 |
| Fire Aetherwing | 3.4% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 33.1% | -27.0 |
| Fire Suzaku | 3.4% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 35.6% | -23.1 |
| Water Fractal | 3.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Whirlpool Mill | 3.4% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 40.9% | -8.7 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 3.1% | 3 | 2-0-1 | 83.3% | 64.3% | 65.5% | +11.6 |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 3.1% | 3 | 3-0-0 | 100.0% | 71.4% | 65.6% | +11.6 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 3.1% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 61.0% | +8.2 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 2.8% | 4 | 1-3-0 | 25.0% | 37.5% | 38.6% | -7.3 |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 2.5% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 44.6% | -8.7 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 2.5% | 5 | 2-3-0 | 40.0% | 44.4% | 34.8% | -8.8 |
| Fire Suited | 2.2% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 51.3% | +1.3 |
| Horse and Taxes | 2.2% | 4 | 1-3-0 | 25.0% | 37.5% | 36.3% | -8.8 |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 2.2% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 28.6% | -20.6 |
| Fire Exia | 1.5% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 24.6% | -24.3 |
| Chess | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Luxem Assassin | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Arcane | 1.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 37.5% | -20.0 |
| Water Astra Ranger | 0.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Neos | 0.9% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 49.6% | -0.3 |
| Fire Arcane | 0.6% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.3% | -14.0 |
| Water Crux Mage | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Cleric | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Diao Chan | 0.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.2% | +13.2 |
| Water Tera Kongming | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Mage | 0.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.1% | +14.5 |
| Wind Neos | 0.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 54.5% | +7.2 |
| Wind Slimes | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Alice | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Arisanna | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crescendo | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Merlin | 0.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 62.1% | +19.3 |
| Fire Tera Cleric | 0.3% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 44.2% | -5.6 |
| Fire Tera Mage | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Alice | 0.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.6% | +12.2 |
| Fire Umbra Ciel | 0.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 46.4% | -5.8 |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Norm Silvie | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Byakko | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Chess | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Lorraine | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Slimes | 0.3% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 55.4% | +5.2 |
| Water Umbra Guardian | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Allies | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Byakko | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Diana | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Exia | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Luxem Assassin | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 15 from this event
The 15 public Fire Slimes decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
Mirror Analysis
In 3 mirror matches, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 3 mirrors is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
Winners more often ran: Liminal Guide, Resolute Stand.
No cards correlated with losing.
Show all 30 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 28 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Liminal Guide | +1.00 | 3 | 0 | 0 | |
| Angelic Channeling | +0.67 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Viridian Protective Trinket | +0.67 | 2 | 0 | 1 | |
| Undeniable Truth | -0.67 | 0 | 2 | 1 | |
| Blissful Calling | +0.67 | 2 | 0 | 1 | |
| Spurn to Ash | +0.67 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Gaia's Songbird | -0.67 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Escape the Wreckage | -0.67 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Forest Cake | -0.67 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Inferno Slime | -0.67 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Infernal Vessel | -0.67 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Verdant Slime | -0.67 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Resolute Stand | +0.33 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Expel the Departed | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 2 | |
| Ghastly Slime | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 2 | |
| Lost Providence | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 2 | |
| Varuckan Acolyte | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Twilight Slime | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 2 | |
| Disenchant | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Reduce to Ash | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Unbroken Mustang | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Angel Attendant | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Heavenly Guide | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Intensified Pyre | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Blanche, Sheltering Saint | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Xiao Qiao, Cinderkeeper | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Nullifying Lantern | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Ducal Seal | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Slime King | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| Hymn of Gaia's Grace | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 |