Fire Crux LorraineTier 2
at Ascent Las Vegas
Pilot Skill · average
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Razorgale | 9.8% | 9 | 6-2-1 | 72.2% | 65.4% | 62.7% | +5.9 |
| Water Genbu | 5.8% | 7 | 1-5-1 | 21.4% | 31.8% | 21.3% | -14.4 |
| Fire Oblation | 5.5% | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 37.1% | -9.6 |
| Water Aetherwing | 5.2% | 4 | 0-4-0 | 0.0% | 25.0% | 20.7% | -18.8 |
| Fire Slimes | 4.6% | 2 | 1-0-1 | 75.0% | 58.3% | 58.4% | +8.0 |
| Water Exia | 4.0% | 5 | 1-4-0 | 20.0% | 33.3% | 36.4% | -7.8 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 4.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 37.6% | -19.9 |
| Fire Aggro | 3.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 66.0% | +25.6 |
| Fire Aetherwing | 3.4% | 4 | 1-3-0 | 25.0% | 37.5% | 26.8% | -14.8 |
| Fire Suzaku | 3.4% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 61.1% | +8.3 |
| Water Fractal | 3.4% | 4 | 3-0-1 | 87.5% | 68.8% | 77.6% | +17.6 |
| Water Whirlpool Mill | 3.4% | 4 | 1-3-0 | 25.0% | 37.5% | 35.9% | -9.0 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 3.1% | 3 | 0-3-0 | 0.0% | 28.6% | 17.0% | -24.6 |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 3.1% | 6 | 4-2-0 | 66.7% | 60.0% | 71.0% | +11.2 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 3.1% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 25.7% | -23.3 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 2.8% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 38.9% | -17.8 |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 2.5% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 73.9% | +23.0 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 2.5% | 3 | 0-3-0 | 0.0% | 28.6% | 34.8% | -11.3 |
| Fire Suited | 2.2% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 49.2% | -0.8 |
| Horse and Taxes | 2.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 2.2% | 5 | 4-0-1 | 90.0% | 72.2% | 73.0% | +13.3 |
| Fire Exia | 1.5% | 4 | 1-1-2 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 45.9% | -2.6 |
| Chess | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 1.2% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 29.1% | -20.0 |
| Water Luxem Assassin | 1.2% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 53.2% | +5.1 |
| Wind Arcane | 1.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 44.8% | -8.4 |
| Water Astra Ranger | 0.9% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 68.4% | +17.6 |
| Water Neos | 0.9% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 58.6% | +8.3 |
| Fire Arcane | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Mage | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Cleric | 0.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 51.6% | +2.5 |
| Water Tera Diao Chan | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Kongming | 0.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 63.4% | +21.4 |
| Water Tera Mage | 0.6% | 2 | 0-1-1 | 25.0% | 41.7% | 31.0% | -18.2 |
| Wind Neos | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Slimes | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Alice | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Arisanna | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crescendo | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Merlin | 0.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 64.2% | +22.7 |
| Fire Tera Cleric | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Tera Mage | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Alice | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Ciel | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 0.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 39.5% | -16.8 |
| Norm Silvie | 0.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 53.3% | +5.3 |
| Water Allies | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Byakko | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Chess | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Lorraine | 0.3% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 49.1% | -0.8 |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 0.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 53.6% | +5.7 |
| Water Slimes | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Guardian | 0.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 62.4% | +19.9 |
| Wind Allies | 0.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.9% | +9.4 |
| Wind Byakko | 0.3% | 4 | 1-3-0 | 25.0% | 37.5% | 29.9% | -12.9 |
| Wind Diana | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Exia | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Luxem Assassin | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 13 from this event
The 13 public Fire Crux Lorraine decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
Mirror Analysis
In 2 mirror matches, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 2 mirrors is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 2 mirrors we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 57 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 57 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Angel Attendant | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Nullifying Lantern | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Cremation Ritual | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Primordial Ritual | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Cheshire Cat, Impish Grin | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Palvor Sword | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Imperial Countermeasure | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Expel the Departed | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Three of Hearts | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Devastating Blow | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Blanche, Sheltering Saint | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Backup Charger | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Lost Providence | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Inert Sword | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Hasty Messenger | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Turbo Charge | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Varuckan Acolyte | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| The Looking Glass | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Votive Runeblade | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Fiery Interference | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Sabela, Gossamer Penance | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Regal Inquisition | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Dummy Trainer | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Beacon Knight | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Halcyon Animus | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Banner Knight | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Spurn to Ash | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Undying Dreams | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Quietus Blade | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Templar of the Eternal | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Sword of Shadows | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Intensified Pyre | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Sun Ce, Weaponsmaster | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Wisp's Protection | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Chime of Endless Dreams | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Drawn Blade | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Escape the Wreckage | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Angelic Vanguard | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Resolute Stand | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Reduce to Ash | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Numinous Monk | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Angelic Channeling | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Spirit Blade: Dispersion | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Lorraine, Spirit Ruler | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Hone by Fire | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Flame Sweep | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Crux Sight | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Stalwart Shieldmate | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Crystallized Destiny | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Sword Saint's Vow | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Spirit Blade: Ascension | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Rending Flames | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Nullifying Mirror | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Prismatic Edge | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Tempered Steel | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Lorraine, Crux Knight | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Topsy Decree | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 |