Water FractalTier 2
at Ascent Las Vegas
decks
11
(3.4% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
90
46-40-4
overall winrate
53.3%
ELO-adjusted winrate
47.1%
avg ELO -1.0 per match
expected value
51.5%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
49.0%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1376
· median 1367
· range 1181–1648
(11 pilots with an ELO rating)
994
Q1 1218
Q3 1417
1694
36% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
9% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Razorgale | 9.8% | 13 | 5-7-1 | 42.3% | 44.1% | 46.0% | -1.7 |
| Water Genbu | 5.8% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 55.7% | +4.3 |
| Fire Oblation | 5.5% | 7 | 6-1-0 | 85.7% | 72.7% | 78.2% | +14.2 |
| Water Aetherwing | 5.2% | 4 | 2-2-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 53.0% | +1.9 |
| Fire Slimes | 4.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 4.0% | 4 | 0-3-1 | 12.5% | 31.2% | 22.4% | -17.6 |
| Water Exia | 4.0% | 3 | 3-0-0 | 100.0% | 71.4% | 69.8% | +14.8 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 4.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 33.7% | -26.1 |
| Fire Aggro | 3.7% | 7 | 3-4-0 | 42.9% | 45.5% | 35.9% | -7.1 |
| Fire Aetherwing | 3.4% | 5 | 3-2-0 | 60.0% | 55.6% | 44.5% | -3.2 |
| Fire Suzaku | 3.4% | 6 | 1-5-0 | 16.7% | 30.0% | 20.4% | -15.8 |
| Water Whirlpool Mill | 3.4% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 48.2% | -1.8 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 3.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.5% | +13.5 |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 3.1% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 45.6% | -4.2 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 3.1% | 3 | 3-0-0 | 100.0% | 71.4% | 69.8% | +14.8 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 2.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.1% | +16.2 |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 2.5% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 32.1% | -28.6 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 2.5% | 3 | 2-0-1 | 83.3% | 64.3% | 59.9% | +7.4 |
| Fire Suited | 2.2% | 3 | 0-3-0 | 0.0% | 28.6% | 23.5% | -19.8 |
| Horse and Taxes | 2.2% | 5 | 5-0-0 | 100.0% | 77.8% | 75.7% | +14.8 |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 2.2% | 3 | 0-3-0 | 0.0% | 28.6% | 24.9% | -18.7 |
| Fire Exia | 1.5% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 61.3% | +10.8 |
| Chess | 1.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 37.8% | -19.6 |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 1.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 36.3% | -21.8 |
| Water Luxem Assassin | 1.2% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 52.9% | +4.6 |
| Wind Arcane | 1.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 37.4% | -20.2 |
| Water Astra Ranger | 0.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Neos | 0.9% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 54.8% | +7.7 |
| Fire Arcane | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Mage | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Cleric | 0.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 61.8% | +18.9 |
| Water Tera Diao Chan | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Kongming | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Mage | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Neos | 0.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.6% | +13.7 |
| Wind Slimes | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Alice | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Arisanna | 0.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.4% | +10.2 |
| Fire Crescendo | 0.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 42.3% | -12.3 |
| Fire Crux Merlin | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Tera Cleric | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Tera Mage | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Alice | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Ciel | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Norm Silvie | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 0.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.1% | -15.8 |
| Water Byakko | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Chess | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Lorraine | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Slimes | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Guardian | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Allies | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Byakko | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Diana | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Exia | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Luxem Assassin | 0.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 66.1% | +25.7 |
Decklists · 11 from this event
The 11 public Water Fractal decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
