Horse and TaxesTier 2
at Ascent Las Vegas
decks
7
(2.2% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
57
25-30-2
overall winrate
45.6%
ELO-adjusted winrate
49.2%
avg ELO -0.3 per match
expected value
49.1%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
50.7%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1297
· median 1303
· range 1075–1480
(7 pilots with an ELO rating)
994
Q1 1218
Q3 1417
1694
14% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
14% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Razorgale | 9.8% | 6 | 3-3-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 51.9% | +1.0 |
| Water Genbu | 5.8% | 3 | 0-1-2 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 42.4% | -5.7 |
| Fire Oblation | 5.5% | 4 | 2-2-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 52.5% | +1.6 |
| Water Aetherwing | 5.2% | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 51.5% | +1.1 |
| Fire Slimes | 4.6% | 4 | 3-1-0 | 75.0% | 62.5% | 63.7% | +8.8 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 4.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Exia | 4.0% | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 44.9% | -3.8 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 4.0% | 5 | 2-3-0 | 40.0% | 44.4% | 44.3% | -3.3 |
| Fire Aggro | 3.7% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 66.2% | +15.6 |
| Fire Aetherwing | 3.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.5% | +12.0 |
| Fire Suzaku | 3.4% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 42.4% | -12.1 |
| Water Fractal | 3.4% | 5 | 0-5-0 | 0.0% | 22.2% | 24.3% | -14.8 |
| Water Whirlpool Mill | 3.4% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 49.1% | -0.9 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 3.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 69.6% | +31.4 |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 3.1% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 63.5% | +12.9 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Mage | 2.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 2.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 62.3% | +19.7 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 2.5% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 44.3% | -9.1 |
| Fire Suited | 2.2% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 36.1% | -13.3 |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 2.2% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 27.7% | -21.4 |
| Fire Exia | 1.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 62.7% | +20.3 |
| Chess | 1.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 39.2% | -17.3 |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 1.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 61.7% | +18.7 |
| Water Luxem Assassin | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Arcane | 1.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 61.2% | +17.9 |
| Water Astra Ranger | 0.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Neos | 0.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Arcane | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Mage | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Cleric | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Diao Chan | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Kongming | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Mage | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Neos | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Slimes | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Alice | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Arisanna | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crescendo | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Merlin | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Tera Cleric | 0.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 38.3% | -18.7 |
| Fire Tera Mage | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Alice | 0.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.4% | +15.1 |
| Fire Umbra Ciel | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Norm Silvie | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 0.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 39.6% | -16.6 |
| Water Byakko | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Chess | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Lorraine | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Slimes | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Guardian | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Allies | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Byakko | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Diana | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Exia | 0.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 38.3% | -18.7 |
| Wind Luxem Assassin | 0.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 64.5% | +23.2 |
