Water Tera KongmingTier 2
at Ascent Las Vegas
decks
2
(0.6% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
22
11-8-3
overall winrate
56.8%
ELO-adjusted winrate
55.5%
avg ELO +2.1 per match
expected value
49.4%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
48.6%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↑ top
mean ELO 1378
· median 1378
· range 1333–1423
(2 pilots with an ELO rating)
994
Q1 1218
Q3 1417
1694
50% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by stronger players — weight the headline winrates accordingly (the ELO-adjusted column already controls for this at the match level).
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Razorgale | 9.8% | 3 | 0-2-1 | 16.7% | 35.7% | 30.6% | -14.5 |
| Water Genbu | 5.8% | 3 | 2-0-1 | 83.3% | 64.3% | 71.2% | +15.9 |
| Fire Oblation | 5.5% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 35.9% | -22.5 |
| Water Aetherwing | 5.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.8% | -14.7 |
| Fire Slimes | 4.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 4.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 36.6% | -21.4 |
| Water Exia | 4.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Seiryuu | 4.0% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 61.1% | +10.6 |
| Fire Aggro | 3.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aetherwing | 3.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 63.0% | +20.7 |
| Fire Suzaku | 3.4% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 67.8% | +17.1 |
| Water Fractal | 3.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Whirlpool Mill | 3.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 3.1% | 3 | 0-2-1 | 16.7% | 35.7% | 36.0% | -10.4 |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 3.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 64.8% | +23.7 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 2.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 2.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 2.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suited | 2.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Horse and Taxes | 2.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 2.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.0% | +11.3 |
| Fire Exia | 1.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.4% | +13.4 |
| Chess | 1.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 38.7% | -18.1 |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Luxem Assassin | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Arcane | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Ranger | 0.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Neos | 0.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Arcane | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Mage | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Cleric | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Diao Chan | 0.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 65.9% | +25.4 |
| Water Tera Mage | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Neos | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Slimes | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Alice | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Arisanna | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crescendo | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Merlin | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Tera Cleric | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Tera Mage | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Alice | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Ciel | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Norm Silvie | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Byakko | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Chess | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Lorraine | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Slimes | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Guardian | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Allies | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Byakko | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Diana | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Exia | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Luxem Assassin | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 2 from this event
The 2 public Water Tera Kongming decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
