Fire SuzakuTier 2
at Ascent Las Vegas
decks
11
(3.4% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
97
57-40-0
overall winrate
58.8%
ELO-adjusted winrate
62.1%
avg ELO +4.0 per match
expected value
54.0%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
56.8%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1342
· median 1328
· range 1124–1498
(11 pilots with an ELO rating)
994
Q1 1218
Q3 1417
1694
27% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
9% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Razorgale | 9.8% | 12 | 8-4-0 | 66.7% | 62.5% | 72.3% | +9.5 |
| Water Genbu | 5.8% | 9 | 7-2-0 | 77.8% | 69.2% | 78.3% | +13.1 |
| Fire Oblation | 5.5% | 3 | 3-0-0 | 100.0% | 71.4% | 81.8% | +23.8 |
| Water Aetherwing | 5.2% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 38.4% | -11.2 |
| Fire Slimes | 4.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 64.4% | +23.1 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 4.0% | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 38.9% | -8.3 |
| Water Exia | 4.0% | 6 | 2-4-0 | 33.3% | 40.0% | 42.1% | -4.2 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 4.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.4% | +15.1 |
| Fire Aggro | 3.7% | 7 | 5-2-0 | 71.4% | 63.6% | 53.4% | +1.7 |
| Fire Aetherwing | 3.4% | 4 | 0-4-0 | 0.0% | 25.0% | 23.1% | -17.2 |
| Water Fractal | 3.4% | 6 | 5-1-0 | 83.3% | 70.0% | 79.6% | +15.8 |
| Water Whirlpool Mill | 3.4% | 4 | 2-2-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 47.9% | -1.3 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 3.1% | 5 | 4-1-0 | 80.0% | 66.7% | 75.3% | +14.6 |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 3.1% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 26.0% | -23.1 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 3.1% | 5 | 0-5-0 | 0.0% | 22.2% | 26.4% | -13.6 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 2.8% | 3 | 3-0-0 | 100.0% | 71.4% | 82.0% | +23.9 |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 2.5% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 54.1% | +3.1 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 2.5% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 39.7% | -16.4 |
| Fire Suited | 2.2% | 4 | 3-1-0 | 75.0% | 62.5% | 60.5% | +6.7 |
| Horse and Taxes | 2.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.6% | +12.1 |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 2.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.7% | +15.5 |
| Fire Exia | 1.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Chess | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 1.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 37.4% | -20.2 |
| Water Luxem Assassin | 1.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 37.1% | -20.7 |
| Wind Arcane | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Ranger | 0.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Neos | 0.9% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.3% | +14.9 |
| Fire Arcane | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Mage | 0.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 54.2% | +6.7 |
| Water Tera Cleric | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Diao Chan | 0.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.8% | +17.3 |
| Water Tera Kongming | 0.6% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 32.2% | -17.1 |
| Water Tera Mage | 0.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.9% | +12.6 |
| Wind Neos | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Slimes | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Alice | 0.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.2% | +11.5 |
| Fire Arisanna | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crescendo | 0.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 45.6% | -7.0 |
| Fire Crux Merlin | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Tera Cleric | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Tera Mage | 0.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.7% | +10.7 |
| Fire Umbra Alice | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Ciel | 0.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 64.5% | +23.2 |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Norm Silvie | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Byakko | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Chess | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Lorraine | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Slimes | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Guardian | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Allies | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Byakko | 0.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 35.6% | -23.0 |
| Wind Diana | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Exia | 0.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 63.3% | +21.3 |
| Wind Luxem Assassin | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 11 from this event
The 11 public Fire Suzaku decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
Mirror Analysis
In 3 mirror matches, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 3 mirrors is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
Winners more often ran: Embercrypt Burn, Restorative Flame. Losers more often ran: Resolute Stand, Spark Alight, Demolition.
Embercrypt Burn
Winning decks ran 3.7
copies on average,
losing decks 3.3.
Of 3 mirrors: the winner ran more in
2, the loser ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 0.
Restorative Flame
Winning decks ran 1.7
copies on average,
losing decks 1.7.
Of 3 mirrors: the winner ran more in
2, the loser ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 0.
Resolute Stand
Losing decks ran 0.7
copies on average,
winning decks 0.3.
Of 3 mirrors: the loser ran more in
2, the winner ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 0.
Spark Alight
Losing decks ran 1.7
copies on average,
winning decks 0.7.
Of 3 mirrors: the loser ran more in
2, the winner ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 0.
Demolition
Losing decks ran 2.7
copies on average,
winning decks 2.3.
Of 3 mirrors: the loser ran more in
2, the winner ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 0.
Flamewreath Call
Losing decks ran 1.7
copies on average,
winning decks 1.7.
Of 3 mirrors: the loser ran more in
2, the winner ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 0.
Show all 44 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 38 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Resolute Stand | -0.33 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Expose Darkness | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Intensified Pyre | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 2 | |
| Spark Alight | -0.33 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Infernal Vessel | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 2 | |
| Crystallized Destiny | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 2 | |
| Shatter the Brittle | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 2 | |
| Suzaku's Command | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 2 | |
| Viridian Protective Trinket | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Coiled Fatestone | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Embercrypt Burn | +0.33 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Grand Crusader's Ring | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Ignite Fate | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Demolition | -0.33 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Restorative Flame | +0.33 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Flamewreath Call | -0.33 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Tariff Ring | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 2 | |
| Avatar of Suzaku | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 2 | |
| Water Resonance Bauble | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fire Resonance Bauble | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Return to the Archive | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Auspicious Manifestation | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Wind Resonance Bauble | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| The Looking Glass | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Gilded Pyre | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Liminal Guide | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| Smoke Out | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| Enfeebling Orb | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| Sword of Seeking | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Three of Hearts | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| Blazing Throw | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| Fiery Interference | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| Reduce to Ash | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Staggering Strike | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Heated Vengeance | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| Expel the Departed | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| Cinder Geyser | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Guo Jia, Blessed Scion | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Restoring Embers | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Cheshire Cat, Impish Grin | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Palvor Sword | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Gentle Respite | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Inert Sword | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Nullifying Mirror | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 |