← CoreTCG Grand Archive Mercurial Heart Regional Championship

EV ranking

How well each archetype is positioned against the field at CoreTCG Grand Archive Mercurial Heart Regional Championship. EV(D) = sum over opponents O of share(O) · winrate(D, O), renormalized to exclude the mirror, with a Beta(2, 2) shrinkage so sparse matchups pull toward 50%. Draws count as 0.5. Adj WR / Adj EV use ELO-derived matchup winrates instead -- same math, skill-controlled. Faded figures come from a small sample (under 10 matches) — read them as rough estimates.

#Archetype Decks Share Matches Winrate Adj WR EV Adj EV Avg ELO Skew
1 Fire Crux Merlin 1 0.8% 7 78.6% 67.1% 58.8% 57.0% 1335
2 Water Umbra Tristan 2 1.7% 14 64.3% 53.5% 56.1% 52.0% 1553 ↑ top
3 Water Ravishing Mill 9 7.4% 57 58.8% 62.3% 55.3% 57.4% 1273
4 Wind Luxem Assassin 3 2.5% 21 59.5% 53.9% 54.9% 52.6% 1380 ↑ top
5 Wind Vanitas 1 0.8% 7 78.6% 57.8% 54.0% 49.8% 1561 ↑ top
6 Wind Shadowstrike 7 5.8% 39 55.1% 50.2% 53.9% 51.4% 1298
7 Slimes 21 17.4% 103 56.8% 57.0% 53.2% 53.7% 1266
8 Fire Ravishing Mill 1 0.8% 7 57.1% 57.4% 53.1% 53.3% 1301
9 Wind Silvie 1 0.8% 7 57.1% 57.3% 52.9% 52.2% 1280
10 Water Beast 1 0.8% 7 78.6% 65.4% 52.1% 52.0% 1470 ↑ top
11 Wind Crux Mage 3 2.5% 9 38.9% 37.9% 51.7% 49.3% 1236
12 Fire Crux Hybrid 9 7.4% 46 51.1% 51.8% 50.5% 50.3% 1355 ↑ top
13 Fire Crux Mage 7 5.8% 45 51.1% 49.4% 50.2% 49.1% 1263
14 Wind Allies 9 7.4% 46 47.8% 44.1% 50.1% 48.7% 1249
15 Water Luxem Assassin 1 0.8% 7 71.4% 69.4% 49.5% 53.4% 1192 ↓ low
16 Wind Umbra Ranger 2 1.7% 14 57.1% 59.3% 49.2% 51.9% 1192 ↓ low
17 Wind Beast 4 3.3% 26 50.0% 41.0% 47.2% 43.3% 1435 ↑ top
18 Wind Neos 1 0.8% 5 40.0% 48.0% 46.9% 47.8% 1300
19 Fire Aggro 9 7.4% 51 52.0% 51.5% 46.8% 47.2% 1306
20 Fire Erupting 2 1.7% 10 45.0% 56.1% 46.8% 49.9% 1216 ↓ low
21 Wind Slimes 1 0.8% 3 16.7% 39.6% 46.2% 46.2% 1295
22 Fire Arcane 4 3.3% 22 31.8% 34.4% 44.6% 44.7% 1235
23 Fire Astra Cleric 1 0.8% 7 28.6% 43.9% 44.5% 49.0% 1217 ↓ low
24 Fire Luxem Assassin 4 3.3% 19 34.2% 39.1% 44.1% 45.5% 1246
25 Water Neos 3 2.5% 12 33.3% 38.9% 43.7% 44.6% 1237
26 Water Overlord 1 0.8% 6 33.3% 48.9% 43.6% 47.0% 1272
27 Water Crux Mage 1 0.8% 6 33.3% 41.7% 42.6% 42.6% 1156 ↓ low
28 Wind Umbra Diana 2 1.7% 13 26.9% 35.6% 42.2% 43.6% 1078 ↓ low
29 Fire Slimes 2 1.7% 12 41.7% 37.2% 42.0% 41.1% 1313
30 Fire Umbra Ranger 4 3.3% 21 28.6% 40.5% 40.8% 43.7% 1167 ↓ low
31 Wind Slice & Dice 1 0.8% 2 0.0% 33.9% 40.0% 40.0% 1135 ↓ low
32 Water Astra Cleric 3 2.5% 19 31.6% 37.6% 39.9% 41.5% 1202 ↓ low