← CoreTCG Grand Archive Mercurial Heart Regional Championship
EV ranking
How well each archetype is positioned against the field at CoreTCG Grand Archive Mercurial Heart Regional Championship.
EV(D) = sum over opponents O of share(O) · winrate(D, O),
renormalized to exclude the mirror, with a Beta(2, 2) shrinkage so sparse
matchups pull toward 50%. Draws count as 0.5.
Adj WR / Adj EV use ELO-derived matchup winrates instead --
same math, skill-controlled.
Faded figures come from a small sample (under 10 matches)
— read them as rough estimates.
| # | Archetype | Decks | Share | Matches | Winrate | Adj WR | EV | Adj EV | Avg ELO | Skew |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Fire Crux Merlin | 1 | 0.8% | 7 | 78.6% | 67.1% | 58.8% | 57.0% | 1335 | — |
| 2 | Water Umbra Tristan | 2 | 1.7% | 14 | 64.3% | 53.5% | 56.1% | 52.0% | 1553 | ↑ top |
| 3 | Water Ravishing Mill | 9 | 7.4% | 57 | 58.8% | 62.3% | 55.3% | 57.4% | 1273 | — |
| 4 | Wind Luxem Assassin | 3 | 2.5% | 21 | 59.5% | 53.9% | 54.9% | 52.6% | 1380 | ↑ top |
| 5 | Wind Vanitas | 1 | 0.8% | 7 | 78.6% | 57.8% | 54.0% | 49.8% | 1561 | ↑ top |
| 6 | Wind Shadowstrike | 7 | 5.8% | 39 | 55.1% | 50.2% | 53.9% | 51.4% | 1298 | — |
| 7 | Slimes | 21 | 17.4% | 103 | 56.8% | 57.0% | 53.2% | 53.7% | 1266 | — |
| 8 | Fire Ravishing Mill | 1 | 0.8% | 7 | 57.1% | 57.4% | 53.1% | 53.3% | 1301 | — |
| 9 | Wind Silvie | 1 | 0.8% | 7 | 57.1% | 57.3% | 52.9% | 52.2% | 1280 | — |
| 10 | Water Beast | 1 | 0.8% | 7 | 78.6% | 65.4% | 52.1% | 52.0% | 1470 | ↑ top |
| 11 | Wind Crux Mage | 3 | 2.5% | 9 | 38.9% | 37.9% | 51.7% | 49.3% | 1236 | — |
| 12 | Fire Crux Hybrid | 9 | 7.4% | 46 | 51.1% | 51.8% | 50.5% | 50.3% | 1355 | ↑ top |
| 13 | Fire Crux Mage | 7 | 5.8% | 45 | 51.1% | 49.4% | 50.2% | 49.1% | 1263 | — |
| 14 | Wind Allies | 9 | 7.4% | 46 | 47.8% | 44.1% | 50.1% | 48.7% | 1249 | — |
| 15 | Water Luxem Assassin | 1 | 0.8% | 7 | 71.4% | 69.4% | 49.5% | 53.4% | 1192 | ↓ low |
| 16 | Wind Umbra Ranger | 2 | 1.7% | 14 | 57.1% | 59.3% | 49.2% | 51.9% | 1192 | ↓ low |
| 17 | Wind Beast | 4 | 3.3% | 26 | 50.0% | 41.0% | 47.2% | 43.3% | 1435 | ↑ top |
| 18 | Wind Neos | 1 | 0.8% | 5 | 40.0% | 48.0% | 46.9% | 47.8% | 1300 | — |
| 19 | Fire Aggro | 9 | 7.4% | 51 | 52.0% | 51.5% | 46.8% | 47.2% | 1306 | — |
| 20 | Fire Erupting | 2 | 1.7% | 10 | 45.0% | 56.1% | 46.8% | 49.9% | 1216 | ↓ low |
| 21 | Wind Slimes | 1 | 0.8% | 3 | 16.7% | 39.6% | 46.2% | 46.2% | 1295 | — |
| 22 | Fire Arcane | 4 | 3.3% | 22 | 31.8% | 34.4% | 44.6% | 44.7% | 1235 | — |
| 23 | Fire Astra Cleric | 1 | 0.8% | 7 | 28.6% | 43.9% | 44.5% | 49.0% | 1217 | ↓ low |
| 24 | Fire Luxem Assassin | 4 | 3.3% | 19 | 34.2% | 39.1% | 44.1% | 45.5% | 1246 | — |
| 25 | Water Neos | 3 | 2.5% | 12 | 33.3% | 38.9% | 43.7% | 44.6% | 1237 | — |
| 26 | Water Overlord | 1 | 0.8% | 6 | 33.3% | 48.9% | 43.6% | 47.0% | 1272 | — |
| 27 | Water Crux Mage | 1 | 0.8% | 6 | 33.3% | 41.7% | 42.6% | 42.6% | 1156 | ↓ low |
| 28 | Wind Umbra Diana | 2 | 1.7% | 13 | 26.9% | 35.6% | 42.2% | 43.6% | 1078 | ↓ low |
| 29 | Fire Slimes | 2 | 1.7% | 12 | 41.7% | 37.2% | 42.0% | 41.1% | 1313 | — |
| 30 | Fire Umbra Ranger | 4 | 3.3% | 21 | 28.6% | 40.5% | 40.8% | 43.7% | 1167 | ↓ low |
| 31 | Wind Slice & Dice | 1 | 0.8% | 2 | 0.0% | 33.9% | 40.0% | 40.0% | 1135 | ↓ low |
| 32 | Water Astra Cleric | 3 | 2.5% | 19 | 31.6% | 37.6% | 39.9% | 41.5% | 1202 | ↓ low |