← Mortal Ambition Regionals 中部場
Fire AggroTier 1
at Mortal Ambition Regionals 中部場
decks
8
(6.2% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
58
32-22-4
overall winrate
58.6%
ELO-adjusted winrate
58.7%
avg ELO +3.0 per match
expected value
54.2%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
54.5%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↑ top
mean ELO 1392
· median 1394
· range 1265–1486
(8 pilots with an ELO rating)
1062
Q1 1230
Q3 1394
1694
50% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by stronger players — weight the headline winrates accordingly (the ELO-adjusted column already controls for this at the match level).
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Slimes | 14.1% | 9 | 6-3-0 | 66.7% | 61.5% | 58.1% | +3.8 |
| Water Penguin Mill | 11.7% | 6 | 2-3-1 | 41.7% | 45.0% | 46.2% | -2.0 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 9.4% | 4 | 2-2-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 55.9% | +3.8 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 9.4% | 3 | 2-0-1 | 83.3% | 64.3% | 61.7% | +8.7 |
| Wind Allies | 7.8% | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 52.3% | +1.7 |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 7.0% | 3 | 2-0-1 | 83.3% | 64.3% | 55.1% | +3.8 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 5.5% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 51.4% | +1.4 |
| Wind Razorgale | 4.7% | 4 | 2-2-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 53.6% | +2.3 |
| Fire Slimes | 3.9% | 4 | 2-2-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 42.6% | -4.7 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 2.3% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 74.6% | +23.7 |
| Water Allies | 2.3% | 4 | 2-2-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 48.0% | -1.3 |
| Fire Dawn of Ashes | 1.6% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 74.6% | +23.7 |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Cleric | 1.6% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.5% | +0.5 |
| Water Crux Mage | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Mage | 1.6% | 3 | 3-0-0 | 100.0% | 71.4% | 68.1% | +13.5 |
| Wind Crux Mage | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Neos | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Arcane | 0.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 62.5% | +20.0 |
| Fire Exia | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Lorraine | 0.8% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 38.3% | -11.2 |
| Water Crux Merlin | 0.8% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.1% | -15.8 |
| Water Neos | 0.8% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 47.6% | -3.9 |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 0.8% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.8% | -14.7 |
| Wind Silvie | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Ranger | 0.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 53.9% | +6.3 |
Decklists · 8 from this event
The 8 public Fire Aggro decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
