← Mortal Ambition Regionals 中部場
Fire Crux MageTier 2
at Mortal Ambition Regionals 中部場
decks
7
(5.5% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
41
14-18-9
overall winrate
45.1%
ELO-adjusted winrate
47.3%
avg ELO -0.9 per match
expected value
49.1%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
50.0%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1316
· median 1405
· range 1099–1482
(7 pilots with an ELO rating)
1062
Q1 1230
Q3 1394
1694
57% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
43% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Slimes | 14.1% | 11 | 3-7-1 | 31.8% | 36.7% | 38.3% | -5.1 |
| Water Penguin Mill | 11.7% | 4 | 1-0-3 | 62.5% | 56.2% | 53.7% | +2.3 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 9.4% | 6 | 2-2-2 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 55.1% | +2.7 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 9.4% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.7% | +0.7 |
| Wind Allies | 7.8% | 5 | 3-2-0 | 60.0% | 55.6% | 60.5% | +6.1 |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 7.0% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 57.5% | +5.6 |
| Fire Aggro | 6.2% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 48.6% | -1.4 |
| Wind Razorgale | 4.7% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 52.5% | +4.1 |
| Fire Slimes | 3.9% | 3 | 1-1-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 46.8% | -2.4 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 2.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 2.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 39.6% | -16.6 |
| Fire Dawn of Ashes | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 1.6% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.7% | -14.8 |
| Water Astra Cleric | 1.6% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 37.9% | -19.4 |
| Water Crux Mage | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Mage | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Mage | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Neos | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Arcane | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Exia | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Lorraine | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Merlin | 0.8% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.2% | +0.2 |
| Water Neos | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Silvie | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Ranger | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
