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Wind AlliesTier 1
at Mortal Ambition Regionals 中部場
Pilot Skill · average
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Slimes | 14.1% | 13 | 9-3-1 | 73.1% | 67.6% | 59.2% | +3.8 |
| Water Penguin Mill | 11.7% | 5 | 1-3-1 | 30.0% | 38.9% | 41.1% | -5.1 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 9.4% | 8 | 1-7-0 | 12.5% | 25.0% | 33.8% | -7.8 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 9.4% | 4 | 3-1-0 | 75.0% | 62.5% | 58.6% | +5.5 |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 7.0% | 5 | 4-1-0 | 80.0% | 66.7% | 69.2% | +11.1 |
| Fire Aggro | 6.2% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 47.7% | -1.7 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 5.5% | 5 | 2-3-0 | 40.0% | 44.4% | 39.5% | -6.1 |
| Wind Razorgale | 4.7% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 45.7% | -6.9 |
| Fire Slimes | 3.9% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 56.4% | +4.7 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 2.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 2.3% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 56.0% | +4.5 |
| Fire Dawn of Ashes | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 1.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.3% | +13.2 |
| Water Astra Cleric | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Mage | 1.6% | 3 | 0-3-0 | 0.0% | 28.6% | 30.0% | -14.9 |
| Water Tera Mage | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Mage | 1.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.2% | +14.8 |
| Wind Neos | 1.6% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 44.4% | -9.0 |
| Fire Arcane | 0.8% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 43.9% | -9.8 |
| Fire Exia | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Lorraine | 0.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 61.6% | +18.6 |
| Water Crux Merlin | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Neos | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Silvie | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Ranger | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 10 from this event
Mirror Analysis
In 2 mirror matches, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 2 mirrors is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 2 mirrors we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 50 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 50 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lurking Assailant | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Second Wind | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Shimmercloak Assassin | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Viridian Protective Trinket | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Windrider Vanguard | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Windmill Engineer | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Hurricane Sweep | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Andronika, Eternal Herald | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Scavenging Raccoon | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Eternal Magistrate | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Favorable Winds | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Lorraine, Blademaster | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Winbless Gatekeeper | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Safeguard Amulet | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Incapacitate | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Dilu, Auspicious Charger | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Cleansing Reunion | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Perse, Relentless Raptor | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Gildas, Chronicler of Aesa | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Liu Bei, Oathkeeper | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Zhang Fei, Spirited Steel | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Mortal Ambition | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Guan Yu, Prime Exemplar | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Parcenet, Royal Maid | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Verdigris Decree | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Oath of the Sakura | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Innervate Agility | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Skirting Step | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Orb of Sealing | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Reclaim | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Rose, Eternal Paragon | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Displace | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Veiling Breeze | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fan of Seven Debts | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Tempest Downfall | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Sword of Seeking | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Deflecting Edge | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Kongming, Wayward Maven | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Life Essence Amulet | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Trained Hawk | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Bagua of Cardinal Fate | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Ornamental Greatsword | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Ardent Cloudstriker | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Ventus, Staff of Zephyrs | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Lorraine, Wandering Warrior | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Zephyr | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Dream Fairy | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Zephyr Assistant | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Prototype Pistol | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Windpiercer | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 |