← Mortal Ambition Regionals 中部場

Wind RazorgaleTier 1

at Mortal Ambition Regionals 中部場

decks
6 (4.7% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
31 14-11-6
overall winrate
54.8%
ELO-adjusted winrate
48.9% avg ELO -0.4 per match
expected value
52.3% share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
50.7% share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1346 · median 1324 · range 1247–1477 (6 pilots with an ELO rating)
1062 Q1 1230 Q3 1394 1694
33% of pilots are in the field's top quartile, 0% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups

Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.

Opponent Their share Matches W-L-D Raw WR Shrunk WR Adj WR ELO Δ/match
Slimes 14.1% 7 3-4-0 42.9% 45.5% 44.1% -3.0
Water Penguin Mill 11.7% 3 2-0-1 83.3% 64.3% 63.6% +10.1
Wind Astra Cleric 9.4% 2 1-1-0 50.0% 50.0% 51.4% +1.3
Wind Shadowstrike 9.4% 4 1-2-1 37.5% 43.8% 39.8% -6.6
Wind Allies 7.8% 1 0-0-1 50.0% 50.0% 54.3% +6.9
Water Ravishing Mill 7.0% 3 2-0-1 83.3% 64.3% 58.4% +6.3
Fire Aggro 6.2% 4 2-2-0 50.0% 50.0% 46.4% -2.3
Fire Crux Mage 5.5% 1 0-0-1 50.0% 50.0% 47.5% -4.1
Fire Slimes 3.9% 0
Fire Luxem Assassin 2.3% 0
Water Allies 2.3% 0
Fire Dawn of Ashes 1.6% 0
Fire Umbra Ranger 1.6% 0
Water Astra Cleric 1.6% 0
Water Crux Mage 1.6% 1 1-0-0 100.0% 60.0% 57.4% +11.8
Water Tera Mage 1.6% 0
Wind Crux Mage 1.6% 1 1-0-0 100.0% 60.0% 51.9% +3.0
Wind Neos 1.6% 1 1-0-0 100.0% 60.0% 57.5% +12.0
Fire Arcane 0.8% 0
Fire Exia 0.8% 0
Water Crux Lorraine 0.8% 1 0-1-0 0.0% 40.0% 44.0% -9.6
Water Crux Merlin 0.8% 1 0-1-0 0.0% 40.0% 38.2% -18.9
Water Neos 0.8% 0
Wind Crux Lorraine 0.8% 0
Wind Silvie 0.8% 0
Wind Umbra Ranger 0.8% 1 0-0-1 50.0% 50.0% 44.6% -8.6
Decklists · 6 from this event
Mirror Analysis

In 3 mirror matches, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 3 mirrors is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.

Winners more often ran: Aesan Protector. Losers more often ran: Stifling Trap, Dream Fairy.

Played more by winners
Aesan Protector
Winning decks ran 3.0 copies on average, losing decks 3.0.
Of 3 mirrors: the winner ran more in 2, the loser ran more in 1, both ran the same in 0.
Played more by losers
Stifling Trap
Losing decks ran 3.3 copies on average, winning decks 3.0.
Of 3 mirrors: the loser ran more in 2, the winner ran more in 1, both ran the same in 0.
Dream Fairy
Losing decks ran 1.7 copies on average, winning decks 1.7.
Of 3 mirrors: the loser ran more in 2, the winner ran more in 1, both ran the same in 0.
Show all 22 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 19 held back from the grid above)
Card Edge In winner In loser Same Direction
Unbroken Mustang +0.67 2 0 1
Ardent Cloudstriker -0.67 0 2 1
Scatter Essence +0.67 2 0 1
Dematerialize -0.67 0 2 0
Reclaim -0.33 0 1 2
Aesan Protector +0.33 2 1 0
Stifling Trap -0.33 1 2 0
Cyclical Breeze +0.33 1 0 2
Nullifying Lantern -0.33 0 1 2
Scavenging Raccoon -0.33 0 1 2
Turbo Charge +0.33 1 0 2
Nullifying Mirror +0.33 1 0 2
Dream Fairy -0.33 1 2 0
Resolute Stand -0.33 0 1 0
Cleansing Reunion +0.00 1 1 1
Viridian Protective Trinket +0.00 1 1 1
Slimeshield +0.00 1 1 1
Backup Charger +0.00 1 1 1
Verdigris Decree +0.00 1 1 1
Zephyr +0.00 1 1 1
Escape the Wreckage +0.00 1 1 0
Diablerie +0.00 1 1 0

JSON: /api/events/13050/archetypes/Wind Razorgale