← Mortal Ambition Regionals 中部場
Water AlliesTier 2
at Mortal Ambition Regionals 中部場
decks
3
(2.3% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
21
11-9-1
overall winrate
54.8%
ELO-adjusted winrate
51.5%
avg ELO +0.6 per match
expected value
50.9%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
50.0%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↑ top
mean ELO 1379
· median 1459
· range 1179–1499
(3 pilots with an ELO rating)
1062
Q1 1230
Q3 1394
1694
67% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
33% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by stronger players — weight the headline winrates accordingly (the ELO-adjusted column already controls for this at the match level).
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Slimes | 14.1% | 3 | 3-0-0 | 100.0% | 71.4% | 63.9% | +10.3 |
| Water Penguin Mill | 11.7% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 43.1% | -11.0 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 9.4% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.0% | -16.0 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 9.4% | 3 | 1-1-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 46.1% | -2.9 |
| Wind Allies | 7.8% | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 44.0% | -4.5 |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 7.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 44.2% | -9.3 |
| Fire Aggro | 6.2% | 4 | 2-2-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 52.0% | +1.3 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 5.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.4% | +16.6 |
| Wind Razorgale | 4.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Slimes | 3.9% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.7% | +10.7 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 2.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Dawn of Ashes | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Cleric | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Mage | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Mage | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Mage | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Neos | 1.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.4% | +13.5 |
| Fire Arcane | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Exia | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Lorraine | 0.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.5% | +15.1 |
| Water Crux Merlin | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Neos | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Silvie | 0.8% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 36.6% | -21.4 |
| Wind Umbra Ranger | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 3 from this event
The 3 public Water Allies decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
