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Water Penguin MillTier 1
at Mortal Ambition Regionals 中部場
Pilot Skill · average
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Slimes | 14.1% | 12 | 5-4-3 | 54.2% | 53.1% | 50.9% | +0.4 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 9.4% | 13 | 7-5-1 | 57.7% | 55.9% | 55.7% | +2.4 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 9.4% | 13 | 8-5-0 | 61.5% | 58.8% | 52.0% | +0.8 |
| Wind Allies | 7.8% | 5 | 3-1-1 | 70.0% | 61.1% | 58.9% | +5.1 |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 7.0% | 11 | 5-5-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 48.2% | -0.8 |
| Fire Aggro | 6.2% | 6 | 3-2-1 | 58.3% | 55.0% | 53.8% | +2.0 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 5.5% | 4 | 0-1-3 | 37.5% | 43.8% | 46.3% | -2.3 |
| Wind Razorgale | 4.7% | 3 | 0-2-1 | 16.7% | 35.7% | 36.4% | -10.1 |
| Fire Slimes | 3.9% | 6 | 1-5-0 | 16.7% | 30.0% | 32.6% | -9.3 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 2.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 38.8% | -18.0 |
| Water Allies | 2.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.9% | +11.0 |
| Fire Dawn of Ashes | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 1.6% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 58.0% | +7.7 |
| Water Astra Cleric | 1.6% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 37.9% | -11.6 |
| Water Crux Mage | 1.6% | 3 | 1-1-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 45.5% | -3.3 |
| Water Tera Mage | 1.6% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 64.2% | +13.6 |
| Wind Crux Mage | 1.6% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 53.3% | +3.2 |
| Wind Neos | 1.6% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 59.9% | +7.4 |
| Fire Arcane | 0.8% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 51.8% | +1.7 |
| Fire Exia | 0.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 62.2% | +19.5 |
| Water Crux Lorraine | 0.8% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 44.0% | -9.7 |
| Water Crux Merlin | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Neos | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 0.8% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 43.1% | -6.7 |
| Wind Silvie | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Ranger | 0.8% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 28.5% | -20.6 |
Decklists · 15 from this event
Mirror Analysis
In 2 mirror matches, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 2 mirrors is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 2 mirrors we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 22 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 22 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cerulean Decree | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Torrential Blast | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Blinding Orb | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Water Barrier | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Tidestone Bovine | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Song of Frost | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Primordial Ritual | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Awakened Deacon | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Spirit of Water | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Fractal of Intrusion | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Wind Resonance Bauble | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Tideholder Claymore | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Ingredient Pouch | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Arisanna, Master Alchemist | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Conjure Downpour | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Frostbind | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Fragmented Spirit of Water | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Aqueous Stallion | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Nullifying Lantern | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Rimesoul Bishop | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Quicksilver Grail | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Crimson Protective Trinket | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 |