← Mortal Ambition Regionals 中部場
Wind ShadowstrikeTier 2
at Mortal Ambition Regionals 中部場
Pilot Skill ↓ low
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Slimes | 14.1% | 12 | 6-5-1 | 54.2% | 53.1% | 58.9% | +3.8 |
| Water Penguin Mill | 11.7% | 13 | 5-8-0 | 38.5% | 41.2% | 48.0% | -0.8 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 9.4% | 5 | 3-1-1 | 70.0% | 61.1% | 65.2% | +8.7 |
| Wind Allies | 7.8% | 4 | 1-3-0 | 25.0% | 37.5% | 41.4% | -5.5 |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 7.0% | 4 | 1-3-0 | 25.0% | 37.5% | 38.5% | -7.4 |
| Fire Aggro | 6.2% | 3 | 0-2-1 | 16.7% | 35.7% | 38.3% | -8.7 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 5.5% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 49.3% | -0.7 |
| Wind Razorgale | 4.7% | 4 | 2-1-1 | 62.5% | 56.2% | 60.2% | +6.6 |
| Fire Slimes | 3.9% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 65.6% | +14.9 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 2.3% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 44.9% | -4.9 |
| Water Allies | 2.3% | 3 | 1-1-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 53.9% | +2.9 |
| Fire Dawn of Ashes | 1.6% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 44.9% | -4.9 |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 1.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.2% | +13.1 |
| Water Astra Cleric | 1.6% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 42.2% | -12.5 |
| Water Crux Mage | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Mage | 1.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 61.8% | +18.8 |
| Wind Crux Mage | 1.6% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 62.8% | +12.3 |
| Wind Neos | 1.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.7% | +15.6 |
| Fire Arcane | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Exia | 0.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.5% | +12.0 |
| Water Crux Lorraine | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Merlin | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Neos | 0.8% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 39.4% | -10.2 |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 0.8% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 43.3% | -10.7 |
| Wind Silvie | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Ranger | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 12 from this event
Mirror Analysis
In 1 mirror match (3 draws excluded), here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 1 mirror is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 1 mirror we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 21 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 21 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cleansing Reunion | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Sharpen Blade | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Dungeon Guide | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Scout the Land | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Veiling Breeze | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Sable Remnant | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Stifling Trap | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Heavenly Guide | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Beseech the Winds | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Mandate of Honor | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Ensnaring Fumes | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Inspiring Call | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Shadowstrike | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Turbo Charge | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Blinding Orb | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Safeguard Amulet | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Mastermind Scheme | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Dream Fairy | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Innervate Agility | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Penumbral Waltz | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Blackmarket Broker | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 |