← Mortal Ambition Regionals 中部場
Water Crux MageTier 3
at Mortal Ambition Regionals 中部場
decks
2
(1.6% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
12
4-6-2
overall winrate
41.7%
ELO-adjusted winrate
48.3%
avg ELO -0.7 per match
expected value
46.0%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
48.2%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↓ low
mean ELO 1252
· median 1252
· range 1166–1338
(2 pilots with an ELO rating)
1062
Q1 1230
Q3 1394
1694
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
50% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by lower-rated players — its raw winrate may understate how good it is.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Slimes | 14.1% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 36.2% | -13.3 |
| Water Penguin Mill | 11.7% | 3 | 1-1-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 54.5% | +3.3 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 9.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 9.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Allies | 7.8% | 3 | 3-0-0 | 100.0% | 71.4% | 70.0% | +14.9 |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 7.0% | 2 | 0-1-1 | 25.0% | 41.7% | 42.2% | -7.5 |
| Fire Aggro | 6.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Mage | 5.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Razorgale | 4.7% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 42.6% | -11.8 |
| Fire Slimes | 3.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 2.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 2.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Dawn of Ashes | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Cleric | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Mage | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Mage | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Neos | 1.6% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 43.8% | -9.9 |
| Fire Arcane | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Exia | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Lorraine | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Merlin | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Neos | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Silvie | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Ranger | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 2 from this event
The 2 public Water Crux Mage decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
