← Mortal Ambition Regionals 中部場
SlimesTier 1
at Mortal Ambition Regionals 中部場
decks
18
(14.1% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
105
53-41-11
overall winrate
55.7%
ELO-adjusted winrate
54.8%
avg ELO +1.6 per match
expected value
53.3%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
53.4%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1310
· median 1283
· range 1144–1523
(18 pilots with an ELO rating)
1062
Q1 1230
Q3 1394
1694
22% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
17% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Water Penguin Mill | 11.7% | 12 | 4-5-3 | 45.8% | 46.9% | 49.1% | -0.4 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 9.4% | 7 | 6-1-0 | 85.7% | 72.7% | 71.4% | +10.8 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 9.4% | 12 | 5-6-1 | 45.8% | 46.9% | 41.1% | -3.8 |
| Wind Allies | 7.8% | 13 | 3-9-1 | 26.9% | 32.4% | 40.8% | -3.8 |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 7.0% | 4 | 3-1-0 | 75.0% | 62.5% | 62.1% | +7.8 |
| Fire Aggro | 6.2% | 9 | 3-6-0 | 33.3% | 38.5% | 41.9% | -3.8 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 5.5% | 11 | 7-3-1 | 68.2% | 63.3% | 61.7% | +5.1 |
| Wind Razorgale | 4.7% | 7 | 4-3-0 | 57.1% | 54.5% | 55.9% | +3.0 |
| Fire Slimes | 3.9% | 6 | 5-1-0 | 83.3% | 70.0% | 67.7% | +9.4 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 2.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 61.8% | +18.8 |
| Water Allies | 2.3% | 3 | 0-3-0 | 0.0% | 28.6% | 36.1% | -10.3 |
| Fire Dawn of Ashes | 1.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 61.8% | +18.8 |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 1.6% | 5 | 3-2-0 | 60.0% | 55.6% | 49.0% | -0.6 |
| Water Astra Cleric | 1.6% | 2 | 0-0-2 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 45.0% | -4.8 |
| Water Crux Mage | 1.6% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 63.8% | +13.3 |
| Water Tera Mage | 1.6% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 63.3% | +12.8 |
| Wind Crux Mage | 1.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.5% | +8.8 |
| Wind Neos | 1.6% | 3 | 0-0-3 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 48.3% | -1.3 |
| Fire Arcane | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Exia | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Lorraine | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Merlin | 0.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.0% | +12.8 |
| Water Neos | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Silvie | 0.8% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 44.2% | -5.6 |
| Wind Umbra Ranger | 0.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 53.9% | +6.3 |
Decklists · 18 from this event
Mirror Analysis
In 8 mirror matches, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down).
Winners more often ran: Tera Sight, Baby Blue Slime, Slime Eruption. Losers more often ran: Resolute Stand, Blissful Calling, Lustrous Slime.
Tera Sight
Winning decks ran 1.0
copy on average,
losing decks 0.1.
Of 8 mirrors: the winner ran more in
6, the loser ran more in 0,
both ran the same in 2.
Baby Blue Slime
Winning decks ran 2.4
copies on average,
losing decks 0.8.
Of 8 mirrors: the winner ran more in
5, the loser ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 2.
Slime Eruption
Winning decks ran 4.0
copies on average,
losing decks 3.6.
Of 8 mirrors: the winner ran more in
3, the loser ran more in 0,
both ran the same in 5.
Blanche, Sheltering Saint
Winning decks ran 0.8
copies on average,
losing decks 0.0.
Of 8 mirrors: the winner ran more in
3, the loser ran more in 0,
both ran the same in 5.
Nullifying Lantern
Winning decks ran 0.9
copies on average,
losing decks 0.6.
Of 8 mirrors: the winner ran more in
3, the loser ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 4.
Nullifying Mirror
Winning decks ran 0.6
copies on average,
losing decks 0.4.
Of 8 mirrors: the winner ran more in
3, the loser ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 4.
Resolute Stand
Losing decks ran 2.8
copies on average,
winning decks 1.1.
Of 8 mirrors: the loser ran more in
6, the winner ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 1.
Blissful Calling
Losing decks ran 3.9
copies on average,
winning decks 1.8.
Of 8 mirrors: the loser ran more in
6, the winner ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 1.
Lustrous Slime
Losing decks ran 3.5
copies on average,
winning decks 1.8.
Of 8 mirrors: the loser ran more in
5, the winner ran more in 0,
both ran the same in 3.
Kind Beastcaller
Losing decks ran 1.4
copies on average,
winning decks 1.1.
Of 8 mirrors: the loser ran more in
4, the winner ran more in 2,
both ran the same in 2.
Gaia's Songbird
Losing decks ran 2.5
copies on average,
winning decks 2.5.
Of 8 mirrors: the loser ran more in
4, the winner ran more in 3,
both ran the same in 1.
Mystic Purifier
Losing decks ran 1.2
copies on average,
winning decks 1.1.
Of 8 mirrors: the loser ran more in
4, the winner ran more in 3,
both ran the same in 1.
Show all 40 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 20 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tera Sight | +0.75 | 6 | 0 | 1 | |
| Resolute Stand | -0.62 | 1 | 6 | 1 | |
| Blissful Calling | -0.62 | 1 | 6 | 1 | |
| Lustrous Slime | -0.62 | 0 | 5 | 3 | |
| Baby Blue Slime | +0.50 | 5 | 1 | 0 | |
| Slime Eruption | +0.38 | 3 | 0 | 5 | |
| Blanche, Sheltering Saint | +0.38 | 3 | 0 | 0 | |
| Dungeon Guide | +0.25 | 2 | 0 | 6 | |
| Heavenly Guide | -0.25 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Nullifying Lantern | +0.25 | 3 | 1 | 4 | |
| Spellshield: Tera | -0.25 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Mechanical Hare | +0.25 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Nullifying Mirror | +0.25 | 3 | 1 | 2 | |
| Kind Beastcaller | -0.25 | 2 | 4 | 0 | |
| Nascent Blast | +0.25 | 2 | 0 | 1 | |
| Beastbond Ears | +0.25 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Unbroken Mustang | -0.25 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Beastbond Paws | +0.12 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Viridian Protective Trinket | +0.12 | 3 | 2 | 1 | |
| Beastbond Boots | -0.12 | 0 | 1 | 7 | |
| Slime's Blessing | +0.12 | 2 | 1 | 3 | |
| Scavenging Raccoon | +0.12 | 4 | 3 | 1 | |
| Gaia's Songbird | -0.12 | 3 | 4 | 1 | |
| Turbo Charge | -0.12 | 0 | 1 | 3 | |
| Escape the Wreckage | +0.12 | 2 | 1 | 5 | |
| Geldus, Terror of Dorumegia | +0.12 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Invective Instruction | -0.12 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Mystic Purifier | -0.12 | 3 | 4 | 0 | |
| Slime King | -0.12 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Hymn of Gaia's Grace | -0.12 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Morgan, Soul Guide | +0.12 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Bedivere, Woodland Overseer | +0.12 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Bestial Frenzy | +0.12 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Wind Resonance Bauble | -0.12 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Tariff Ring | -0.12 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Slimeshield | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 4 | |
| Reprogram | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 0 | |
| Verdant Scepter | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 6 | |
| Twilight Slime | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Safeguard Amulet | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 |