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Water Astra ClericTier 2
at Mortal Ambition Regionals 中部場
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Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Slimes | 14.1% | 2 | 0-0-2 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 55.0% | +4.8 |
| Water Penguin Mill | 11.7% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 62.1% | +11.6 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 9.4% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 53.9% | +6.2 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 9.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.8% | +12.5 |
| Wind Allies | 7.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 7.0% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 48.7% | -2.2 |
| Fire Aggro | 6.2% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 49.5% | -0.5 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 5.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 62.1% | +19.4 |
| Wind Razorgale | 4.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Slimes | 3.9% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 44.7% | -8.5 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 2.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 2.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Dawn of Ashes | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Mage | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Mage | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Mage | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Neos | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Arcane | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Exia | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Lorraine | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Merlin | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Neos | 0.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 62.6% | +20.1 |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Silvie | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Ranger | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 2 from this event
Mirror Analysis
In 1 mirror match, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 1 mirror is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 1 mirror we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 35 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 35 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Frostbind | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Arisanna, Lucent Arbiter | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Mnemonic Charm | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Dungeon Guide | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Dusklight Communion | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| The Elysian Astrolabe | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Freezing Steel | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Heavenly Guide | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Spellshield: Astra | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Grand Crusader's Ring | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Arisanna, Astral Zenith | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Cosmic Bolt | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Flash Freeze | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Empowering Prayer | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Stream of Consciousness | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Blanche, Sheltering Saint | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fracturize | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Gentle Respite | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Backup Charger | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Scry the Stars | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Astarte, Celestial Dawn | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Fast Cure | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Harvest Herbs | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Scry the Skies | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Wisdom's Reprise | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Meteor Strike | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Safeguard Amulet | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Hypothermia | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Quicksilver Grail | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Ingredient Pouch | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Nullifying Mirror | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Nascent Barrier | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Potion of Healing | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Indolent Leisure | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Cometfall | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 |