← Mortal Ambition Regionals 中部場
Water Tera MageTier 3
at Mortal Ambition Regionals 中部場
decks
2
(1.6% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
13
3-10-0
overall winrate
23.1%
ELO-adjusted winrate
33.5%
avg ELO -6.9 per match
expected value
37.7%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
39.8%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↑ top
mean ELO 1419
· median 1419
· range 1220–1618
(2 pilots with an ELO rating)
1062
Q1 1230
Q3 1394
1694
50% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
50% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by stronger players — weight the headline winrates accordingly (the ELO-adjusted column already controls for this at the match level).
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Slimes | 14.1% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 36.7% | -12.8 |
| Water Penguin Mill | 11.7% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 35.8% | -13.6 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 9.4% | 4 | 2-2-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 53.1% | +2.0 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 9.4% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 38.2% | -18.8 |
| Wind Allies | 7.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 7.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aggro | 6.2% | 3 | 0-3-0 | 0.0% | 28.6% | 31.9% | -13.5 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 5.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Razorgale | 4.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Slimes | 3.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 2.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 2.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Dawn of Ashes | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Cleric | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Mage | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Mage | 1.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.9% | +14.3 |
| Wind Neos | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Arcane | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Exia | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Lorraine | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Merlin | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Neos | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Silvie | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Ranger | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
