Fire AggroTier 2
at Ascent Christchurch
decks
6
(3.8% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
50
23-26-1
overall winrate
47.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
46.2%
avg ELO -1.3 per match
expected value
47.2%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
46.6%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1318
· median 1336
· range 1064–1563
(6 pilots with an ELO rating)
973
Q1 1208
Q3 1405
1702
17% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
17% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Slimes | 20.3% | 14 | 5-9-0 | 35.7% | 38.9% | 35.5% | -6.0 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 13.3% | 5 | 3-2-0 | 60.0% | 55.6% | 55.5% | +3.2 |
| Wind Allies | 8.2% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 58.9% | +6.6 |
| Wind Razorgale | 7.0% | 5 | 2-3-0 | 40.0% | 44.4% | 50.2% | +0.1 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 6.3% | 6 | 3-3-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 47.1% | -1.5 |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 5.7% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.0% | -0.0 |
| Fire Exia | 5.1% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 30.0% | -19.2 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 4.4% | 4 | 3-1-0 | 75.0% | 62.5% | 60.8% | +6.9 |
| Fire Slimes | 3.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 3.2% | 3 | 0-3-0 | 0.0% | 28.6% | 29.9% | -15.0 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 2.5% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 42.1% | -12.6 |
| Water Penguin Mill | 1.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 1.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 1.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Cats | 1.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.9% | +15.8 |
| Wind Crux Mage | 1.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Exia | 1.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Astra Cleric | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Hybrid | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Norm Tera Silvie | 0.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.8% | +17.2 |
| Water Arisanna | 0.6% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 34.9% | -24.1 |
| Water Astra Cleric | 0.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 61.1% | +17.8 |
| Water Crux Merlin | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Diana | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Silvie | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Arcane | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Lorraine | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Neos | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Overlord | 0.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.8% | +17.2 |
| Wind Slimes | 0.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.8% | +15.7 |
| Wind Tera Silvie | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
