Water Penguin MillTier 3
at Ascent Christchurch
decks
3
(1.9% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
24
9-12-3
overall winrate
43.8%
ELO-adjusted winrate
44.8%
avg ELO -1.9 per match
expected value
50.7%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
51.1%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1302
· median 1424
· range 973–1509
(3 pilots with an ELO rating)
973
Q1 1208
Q3 1405
1702
67% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
33% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Slimes | 20.3% | 6 | 3-3-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 51.6% | +0.9 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 13.3% | 3 | 2-0-1 | 83.3% | 64.3% | 65.6% | +11.6 |
| Wind Allies | 8.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.5% | +16.8 |
| Wind Razorgale | 7.0% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 47.2% | -4.5 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 6.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 5.7% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 34.7% | -14.6 |
| Fire Exia | 5.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 4.4% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 36.5% | -12.9 |
| Fire Aggro | 3.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Slimes | 3.2% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 26.5% | -22.6 |
| Water Allies | 3.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.0% | -16.1 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 2.5% | 2 | 1-0-1 | 75.0% | 58.3% | 56.3% | +6.0 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 1.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 61.0% | +17.6 |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 1.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Cats | 1.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Mage | 1.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Exia | 1.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Astra Cleric | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Hybrid | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Norm Tera Silvie | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Arisanna | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Cleric | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Merlin | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Diana | 0.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.3% | +8.4 |
| Water Silvie | 0.6% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 43.0% | -11.2 |
| Wind Arcane | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Lorraine | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Neos | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Overlord | 0.6% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 44.2% | -9.3 |
| Wind Slimes | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Tera Silvie | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 3 from this event
The 3 public Water Penguin Mill decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
