Water DianaTier 3
at Ascent Christchurch
decks
1
(0.6% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
8
3-5-0
overall winrate
37.5%
ELO-adjusted winrate
50.6%
avg ELO +0.3 per match
expected value
44.5%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
46.5%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↓ low
mean ELO 1022
· median 1022
· range 1022–1022
(1 pilot with an ELO rating)
973
Q1 1208
Q3 1405
1702
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
100% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by lower-rated players — its raw winrate may understate how good it is.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Slimes | 20.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.4% | -13.7 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 13.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.3% | -13.9 |
| Wind Allies | 8.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Razorgale | 7.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.3% | -13.9 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 6.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 63.1% | +21.0 |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 5.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Exia | 5.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 63.0% | +20.8 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 4.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aggro | 3.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Slimes | 3.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 3.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 2.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Penguin Mill | 1.9% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 44.7% | -8.4 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 1.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 65.5% | +24.7 |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 1.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Cats | 1.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Mage | 1.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Exia | 1.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Astra Cleric | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Hybrid | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Norm Tera Silvie | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Arisanna | 0.6% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.0% | -14.4 |
| Water Astra Cleric | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Merlin | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Silvie | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Arcane | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Lorraine | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Neos | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Overlord | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Slimes | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Tera Silvie | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 1 from this event
The 1 public Water Diana decklist from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
