Water ArisannaTier 2
at Ascent Christchurch
decks
1
(0.6% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
12
7-4-1
overall winrate
62.5%
ELO-adjusted winrate
74.1%
avg ELO +10.3 per match
expected value
50.0%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
56.5%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↓ low
mean ELO 1229
· median 1229
· range 1229–1229
(1 pilot with an ELO rating)
973
Q1 1208
Q3 1405
1702
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by lower-rated players — its raw winrate may understate how good it is.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Slimes | 20.3% | 4 | 2-1-1 | 62.5% | 56.2% | 66.3% | +10.4 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 13.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 42.1% | -12.6 |
| Wind Allies | 8.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 45.9% | -6.6 |
| Wind Razorgale | 7.0% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 57.2% | +6.9 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 6.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 5.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Exia | 5.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 4.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aggro | 3.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 65.1% | +24.1 |
| Fire Slimes | 3.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 65.5% | +24.8 |
| Water Allies | 3.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 2.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Penguin Mill | 1.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 1.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 65.0% | +24.0 |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 1.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Cats | 1.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Mage | 1.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Exia | 1.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Astra Cleric | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Hybrid | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Norm Tera Silvie | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Cleric | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Merlin | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Diana | 0.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.0% | +14.4 |
| Water Silvie | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Arcane | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Lorraine | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Neos | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Overlord | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Slimes | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Tera Silvie | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 1 from this event
The 1 public Water Arisanna decklist from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
