Fire Crux MageTier 2
at Ascent Christchurch
decks
21
(13.3% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
130
52-59-19
overall winrate
47.3%
ELO-adjusted winrate
45.9%
avg ELO -1.4 per match
expected value
45.6%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
44.6%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1318
· median 1309
· range 1104–1599
(21 pilots with an ELO rating)
973
Q1 1208
Q3 1405
1702
19% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
19% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Slimes | 20.3% | 27 | 6-18-3 | 27.8% | 30.6% | 34.8% | -5.6 |
| Wind Allies | 8.2% | 10 | 2-6-2 | 30.0% | 35.7% | 31.1% | -8.4 |
| Wind Razorgale | 7.0% | 12 | 5-5-2 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 51.0% | +0.4 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 6.3% | 5 | 3-1-1 | 70.0% | 61.1% | 57.4% | +4.3 |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 5.7% | 10 | 4-6-0 | 40.0% | 42.9% | 34.5% | -7.0 |
| Fire Exia | 5.1% | 7 | 5-1-1 | 78.6% | 68.2% | 57.3% | +3.7 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 4.4% | 5 | 3-2-0 | 60.0% | 55.6% | 55.7% | +3.3 |
| Fire Aggro | 3.8% | 5 | 2-3-0 | 40.0% | 44.4% | 44.5% | -3.2 |
| Fire Slimes | 3.2% | 8 | 3-4-1 | 43.8% | 45.8% | 42.7% | -3.5 |
| Water Allies | 3.2% | 5 | 2-3-0 | 40.0% | 44.4% | 48.1% | -1.1 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 2.5% | 4 | 2-0-2 | 75.0% | 62.5% | 57.7% | +5.0 |
| Water Penguin Mill | 1.9% | 3 | 0-2-1 | 16.7% | 35.7% | 34.4% | -11.6 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 1.3% | 4 | 2-2-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 57.7% | +4.9 |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 1.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Cats | 1.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 42.1% | -12.6 |
| Wind Crux Mage | 1.3% | 2 | 1-0-1 | 75.0% | 58.3% | 51.9% | +1.8 |
| Wind Exia | 1.3% | 3 | 2-0-1 | 83.3% | 64.3% | 62.8% | +9.5 |
| Fire Astra Cleric | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Hybrid | 0.6% | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 39.0% | -8.2 |
| Norm Tera Silvie | 0.6% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 39.6% | -16.6 |
| Water Arisanna | 0.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.9% | +12.6 |
| Water Astra Cleric | 0.6% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 49.9% | -0.2 |
| Water Crux Merlin | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Diana | 0.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.7% | +13.9 |
| Water Silvie | 0.6% | 3 | 2-0-1 | 83.3% | 64.3% | 63.6% | +10.2 |
| Wind Arcane | 0.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.8% | +12.5 |
| Wind Lorraine | 0.6% | 3 | 2-0-1 | 83.3% | 64.3% | 69.0% | +14.2 |
| Wind Neos | 0.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.0% | +12.8 |
| Wind Overlord | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Slimes | 0.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 54.7% | +7.5 |
| Wind Tera Silvie | 0.6% | 3 | 0-2-1 | 16.7% | 35.7% | 47.5% | -1.9 |
Decklists · 21 from this event
The 21 public Fire Crux Mage decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
Mirror Analysis
In 11 mirror matches (3 draws excluded), here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down).
Winners more often ran: Resolute Stand, Sudden Steel, Cremation Ritual. Losers more often ran: Fast Cure, Incapacitate, Focused Flames.
Resolute Stand
Winning decks ran 3.2
copies on average,
losing decks 1.8.
Of 11 mirrors: the winner ran more in
6, the loser ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 4.
Sudden Steel
Winning decks ran 1.1
copies on average,
losing decks 0.3.
Of 11 mirrors: the winner ran more in
5, the loser ran more in 0,
both ran the same in 6.
Cremation Ritual
Winning decks ran 3.5
copies on average,
losing decks 2.3.
Of 11 mirrors: the winner ran more in
6, the loser ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 4.
Mnemonic Charm
Winning decks ran 3.6
copies on average,
losing decks 3.3.
Of 11 mirrors: the winner ran more in
5, the loser ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 5.
Nullifying Lantern
Winning decks ran 1.0
copy on average,
losing decks 0.6.
Of 11 mirrors: the winner ran more in
4, the loser ran more in 0,
both ran the same in 7.
Flame-Rune Swordsman
Winning decks ran 3.8
copies on average,
losing decks 3.5.
Of 11 mirrors: the winner ran more in
4, the loser ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 6.
Fast Cure
Losing decks ran 2.2
copies on average,
winning decks 0.5.
Of 11 mirrors: the loser ran more in
7, the winner ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 3.
Incapacitate
Losing decks ran 1.0
copy on average,
winning decks 0.1.
Of 11 mirrors: the loser ran more in
6, the winner ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 4.
Focused Flames
Losing decks ran 1.3
copies on average,
winning decks 0.2.
Of 11 mirrors: the loser ran more in
5, the winner ran more in 0,
both ran the same in 6.
Backup Charger
Losing decks ran 0.5
copies on average,
winning decks 0.2.
Of 11 mirrors: the loser ran more in
5, the winner ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 5.
Nullifying Mirror
Losing decks ran 0.6
copies on average,
winning decks 0.2.
Of 11 mirrors: the loser ran more in
6, the winner ran more in 2,
both ran the same in 3.
Under Fire
Losing decks ran 1.6
copies on average,
winning decks 0.9.
Of 11 mirrors: the loser ran more in
5, the winner ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 5.
Show all 66 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 46 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fast Cure | -0.55 | 1 | 7 | 1 | |
| Resolute Stand | +0.45 | 6 | 1 | 4 | |
| Sudden Steel | +0.45 | 5 | 0 | 1 | |
| Cremation Ritual | +0.45 | 6 | 1 | 4 | |
| Incapacitate | -0.45 | 1 | 6 | 0 | |
| Focused Flames | -0.45 | 0 | 5 | 0 | |
| Mnemonic Charm | +0.36 | 5 | 1 | 5 | |
| Backup Charger | -0.36 | 1 | 5 | 1 | |
| Nullifying Lantern | +0.36 | 4 | 0 | 7 | |
| Nullifying Mirror | -0.36 | 2 | 6 | 0 | |
| Under Fire | -0.36 | 1 | 5 | 4 | |
| Alkahest | -0.27 | 0 | 3 | 0 | |
| Flame-Rune Swordsman | +0.27 | 4 | 1 | 6 | |
| Thunderclap | -0.27 | 2 | 5 | 2 | |
| Disintegrate | +0.27 | 3 | 0 | 8 | |
| Tome of Sorcery | +0.27 | 5 | 2 | 3 | |
| Turbo Charge | -0.27 | 0 | 3 | 1 | |
| Harmonious Mantra | +0.27 | 3 | 0 | 7 | |
| Purge in Flames | +0.18 | 4 | 2 | 4 | |
| Heavenly Guide | +0.18 | 4 | 2 | 4 | |
| Mystic Purifier | -0.18 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Honorable Vanguard | +0.18 | 5 | 3 | 0 | |
| Devastating Blow | -0.18 | 3 | 5 | 0 | |
| Spark Alight | +0.18 | 4 | 2 | 5 | |
| Hasty Messenger | -0.18 | 3 | 5 | 3 | |
| Scry the Skies | +0.18 | 3 | 1 | 0 | |
| Lorraine, Wandering Warrior | -0.18 | 0 | 2 | 1 | |
| Heighten Spellcraft | +0.18 | 6 | 4 | 1 | |
| Library Witch | -0.18 | 0 | 2 | 1 | |
| Kongming, Wayward Maven | +0.18 | 2 | 0 | 8 | |
| Orb of Sealing | +0.18 | 4 | 2 | 2 | |
| Ignite the Soul | +0.18 | 5 | 3 | 1 | |
| Reduce to Ash | +0.18 | 4 | 2 | 0 | |
| Excoriate | -0.18 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Repelling Palmblast | -0.18 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Retold Fortune | -0.18 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Spirit of Fire | -0.09 | 1 | 2 | 8 | |
| Tether in Flames | -0.09 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Incarnate Majesty | +0.09 | 3 | 2 | 6 | |
| Blanche, Sheltering Saint | +0.09 | 3 | 2 | 6 | |
| Potion Infusion: Seal | -0.09 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Reprogram | +0.09 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Safeguard Amulet | +0.09 | 2 | 1 | 8 | |
| Spirit Blade: Ascension | -0.09 | 3 | 4 | 1 | |
| Drawn Blade | +0.09 | 1 | 0 | 10 | |
| Tariff Ring | +0.09 | 1 | 0 | 10 | |
| Prismatic Edge | -0.09 | 3 | 4 | 1 | |
| Shard of Empowerment | -0.09 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Indolent Leisure | -0.09 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Viridian Protective Trinket | -0.09 | 2 | 3 | 0 | |
| Fragmented Spirit of Fire | +0.09 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Rending Flames | +0.09 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Varuck, Smoldering Spire | +0.09 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Refracting Missile | -0.09 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Dragon's Dawn | -0.09 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Chalice of Blood | -0.09 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Favorable Winds | -0.09 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Rising Tides | -0.09 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Savage Attack | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Crux Sight | +0.00 | 3 | 3 | 5 | |
| Stalwart Shieldmate | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 7 | |
| Scatter Essence | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Morgan, Soul Guide | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 1 | |
| Solar Pinnacle | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 0 | |
| Reclaim | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Chilling Touch | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 |