Wind ShadowstrikeTier 2
at Ascent Christchurch
Pilot Skill · average
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Slimes | 20.3% | 20 | 11-7-2 | 60.0% | 58.3% | 59.2% | +3.5 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 13.3% | 5 | 1-3-1 | 30.0% | 38.9% | 42.6% | -4.3 |
| Wind Allies | 8.2% | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 47.5% | -1.9 |
| Wind Razorgale | 7.0% | 4 | 1-3-0 | 25.0% | 37.5% | 39.7% | -6.6 |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 5.7% | 6 | 1-4-1 | 25.0% | 35.0% | 32.6% | -9.3 |
| Fire Exia | 5.1% | 3 | 1-1-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 42.9% | -5.3 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 4.4% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 35.2% | -23.6 |
| Fire Aggro | 3.8% | 6 | 3-3-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 52.9% | +1.5 |
| Fire Slimes | 3.2% | 5 | 1-3-1 | 30.0% | 38.9% | 36.6% | -7.7 |
| Water Allies | 3.2% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 51.4% | +1.3 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 2.5% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 47.4% | -2.5 |
| Water Penguin Mill | 1.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 1.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 1.3% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 29.3% | -19.8 |
| Wind Cats | 1.3% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 55.0% | +8.0 |
| Wind Crux Mage | 1.3% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 46.7% | -5.2 |
| Wind Exia | 1.3% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.5% | +0.9 |
| Fire Astra Cleric | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Hybrid | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Norm Tera Silvie | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Arisanna | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Cleric | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Merlin | 0.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 61.3% | +18.1 |
| Water Diana | 0.6% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 36.9% | -21.0 |
| Water Silvie | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Arcane | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Lorraine | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Neos | 0.6% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 36.5% | -21.7 |
| Wind Overlord | 0.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 61.3% | +18.0 |
| Wind Slimes | 0.6% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 35.8% | -22.7 |
| Wind Tera Silvie | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 10 from this event
The 10 public Wind Shadowstrike decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
Mirror Analysis
In 2 mirror matches (1 draw excluded), here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 2 mirrors is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 2 mirrors we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 27 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 27 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sharpen Blade | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Viridian Protective Trinket | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Scout the Land | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Veiling Breeze | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Gearstride Gloves | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Shadow Resonance | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Shadowstrike | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Turbo Charge | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Verdigris Decree | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Sadi, Blood Harvester | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Tariff Ring | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Mastermind Scheme | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Nullifying Mirror | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Zephyr | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Penumbral Waltz | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Reprogram | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Safeguard Amulet | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Dematerialize | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Charged Assailant | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Gloamspire Mantle | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Imperial Spy | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Blanche, Sheltering Saint | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Nullifying Lantern | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Orb of Choking Fumes | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Blinding Orb | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Innervate Agility | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Blackmarket Broker | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 |