Fire Luxem AssassinTier 2
at Ascent Christchurch
Pilot Skill · average
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Slimes | 20.3% | 13 | 3-7-3 | 34.6% | 38.2% | 40.0% | -4.2 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 13.3% | 5 | 2-3-0 | 40.0% | 44.4% | 44.3% | -3.3 |
| Wind Allies | 8.2% | 5 | 3-2-0 | 60.0% | 55.6% | 59.6% | +5.6 |
| Wind Razorgale | 7.0% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 43.8% | -6.0 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 6.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 64.8% | +23.6 |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 5.7% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 37.0% | -20.8 |
| Fire Exia | 5.1% | 4 | 3-0-1 | 87.5% | 68.8% | 67.5% | +11.2 |
| Fire Aggro | 3.8% | 4 | 1-3-0 | 25.0% | 37.5% | 39.2% | -6.9 |
| Fire Slimes | 3.2% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 54.2% | +3.1 |
| Water Allies | 3.2% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 40.5% | -9.2 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 2.5% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 42.9% | -11.3 |
| Water Penguin Mill | 1.9% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 63.5% | +12.9 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 1.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 1.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 34.5% | -24.8 |
| Wind Cats | 1.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Mage | 1.3% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 44.6% | -5.2 |
| Wind Exia | 1.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 61.5% | +18.3 |
| Fire Astra Cleric | 0.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 61.4% | +18.2 |
| Fire Crux Hybrid | 0.6% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 48.5% | -2.4 |
| Norm Tera Silvie | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Arisanna | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Cleric | 0.6% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.1% | -14.2 |
| Water Crux Merlin | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Diana | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Silvie | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Arcane | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Lorraine | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Neos | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Overlord | 0.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 62.5% | +20.1 |
| Wind Slimes | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Tera Silvie | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 7 from this event
Mirror Analysis
In 2 mirror matches, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 2 mirrors is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 2 mirrors we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 17 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 17 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Caliburn of Silencing | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Peaceful Reunion | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Morgan, Soul Guide | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Incapacitate | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Thieving Cut | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Orb of Sealing | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Planted Explosive | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Under Fire | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Slice and Dice | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Blanche, Sheltering Saint | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Vanish from Sight | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Stalwart Shieldmate | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Scry the Skies | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Exploit Vulnerability | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Reprogram | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Nullifying Mirror | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Resolute Stand | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 |