Water Ravishing MillTier 1
at Ascent Christchurch
Pilot Skill · average
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Slimes | 20.3% | 20 | 7-11-2 | 40.0% | 41.7% | 36.7% | -5.1 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 13.3% | 10 | 6-4-0 | 60.0% | 57.1% | 65.5% | +7.0 |
| Wind Allies | 8.2% | 2 | 0-1-1 | 25.0% | 41.7% | 32.6% | -16.7 |
| Wind Razorgale | 7.0% | 8 | 2-5-1 | 31.2% | 37.5% | 40.7% | -4.5 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 6.3% | 6 | 4-1-1 | 75.0% | 65.0% | 67.4% | +9.3 |
| Fire Exia | 5.1% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 52.4% | +2.3 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 4.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 63.0% | +20.8 |
| Fire Aggro | 3.8% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.0% | +0.0 |
| Fire Slimes | 3.2% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 44.1% | -5.6 |
| Water Allies | 3.2% | 6 | 3-1-2 | 66.7% | 60.0% | 60.6% | +5.7 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 2.5% | 3 | 0-2-1 | 16.7% | 35.7% | 35.8% | -10.6 |
| Water Penguin Mill | 1.9% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 65.3% | +14.6 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 1.3% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 53.0% | +4.9 |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 1.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Cats | 1.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.0% | +8.0 |
| Wind Crux Mage | 1.3% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 57.5% | +7.2 |
| Wind Exia | 1.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.1% | +14.6 |
| Fire Astra Cleric | 0.6% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 45.9% | -4.0 |
| Fire Crux Hybrid | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Norm Tera Silvie | 0.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.1% | +12.9 |
| Water Arisanna | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Cleric | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Merlin | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Diana | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Silvie | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Arcane | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Lorraine | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Neos | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Overlord | 0.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 61.3% | +18.0 |
| Wind Slimes | 0.6% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 45.5% | -4.3 |
| Wind Tera Silvie | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 9 from this event
Mirror Analysis
In 1 mirror match (1 draw excluded), here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 1 mirror is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 1 mirror we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 24 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 24 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Orb of Sealing | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Song of Frost | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Primordial Ritual | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Fractal of Polar Depths | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Diffusive Block | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Revitalizing Cleanse | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Viridian Protective Trinket | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Snow Fairy | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Freezing Steel | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Hailstorm Guard | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Ghostsight Glass | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Tonoris, Lone Mercenary | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Seasprite Diver | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Cerulean Decree | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Seaside Ringleader | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Safeguard Amulet | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Tideholder Claymore | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Tidestone Bovine | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Tariff Ring | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Nullifying Mirror | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Bauble of Abundance | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Crimson Protective Trinket | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Tidal Lock | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Silvie, Wilds Whisperer | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 |