Fire ExiaTier 2
at Ascent Christchurch
decks
8
(5.1% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
55
15-29-11
overall winrate
37.3%
ELO-adjusted winrate
41.8%
avg ELO -2.8 per match
expected value
42.3%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
45.1%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↓ low
mean ELO 1203
· median 1207
· range 1023–1410
(8 pilots with an ELO rating)
973
Q1 1208
Q3 1405
1702
12% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
50% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by lower-rated players — its raw winrate may understate how good it is.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Slimes | 20.3% | 6 | 1-3-2 | 33.3% | 40.0% | 41.5% | -4.5 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 13.3% | 7 | 1-5-1 | 21.4% | 31.8% | 42.7% | -3.7 |
| Wind Allies | 8.2% | 5 | 3-2-0 | 60.0% | 55.6% | 57.3% | +4.2 |
| Wind Razorgale | 7.0% | 5 | 0-4-1 | 10.0% | 27.8% | 29.0% | -12.1 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 6.3% | 3 | 1-1-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 57.1% | +5.3 |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 5.7% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 47.6% | -2.3 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 4.4% | 4 | 0-3-1 | 12.5% | 31.2% | 32.5% | -11.2 |
| Fire Aggro | 3.8% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 70.0% | +19.2 |
| Fire Slimes | 3.2% | 3 | 2-0-1 | 83.3% | 64.3% | 61.0% | +8.2 |
| Water Allies | 3.2% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 38.5% | -11.1 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 2.5% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 28.8% | -20.3 |
| Water Penguin Mill | 1.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 1.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 43.4% | -10.5 |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 1.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Cats | 1.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 35.6% | -23.1 |
| Wind Crux Mage | 1.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Exia | 1.3% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 33.9% | -15.5 |
| Fire Astra Cleric | 0.6% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 48.7% | -2.0 |
| Fire Crux Hybrid | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Norm Tera Silvie | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Arisanna | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Cleric | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Merlin | 0.6% | 3 | 2-0-1 | 83.3% | 64.3% | 65.2% | +11.3 |
| Water Diana | 0.6% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 37.0% | -20.8 |
| Water Silvie | 0.6% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 49.4% | -1.0 |
| Wind Arcane | 0.6% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 53.1% | +3.0 |
| Wind Lorraine | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Neos | 0.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.0% | +15.9 |
| Wind Overlord | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Slimes | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Tera Silvie | 0.6% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 51.6% | +2.6 |
Decklists · 8 from this event
Mirror Analysis
In 3 mirror matches, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 3 mirrors is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
Winners more often ran: Relentless Outburst, Cremation Ritual, Library Witch. Losers more often ran: Savage Swing, Proof of Life.
Relentless Outburst
Winning decks ran 3.7
copies on average,
losing decks 1.7.
Of 3 mirrors: the winner ran more in
3, the loser ran more in 0,
both ran the same in 0.
Cremation Ritual
Winning decks ran 2.0
copies on average,
losing decks 1.3.
Of 3 mirrors: the winner ran more in
2, the loser ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 0.
Library Witch
Winning decks ran 2.3
copies on average,
losing decks 0.7.
Of 3 mirrors: the winner ran more in
2, the loser ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 0.
Savage Swing
Losing decks ran 3.7
copies on average,
winning decks 2.7.
Of 3 mirrors: the loser ran more in
3, the winner ran more in 0,
both ran the same in 0.
Proof of Life
Losing decks ran 3.7
copies on average,
winning decks 2.0.
Of 3 mirrors: the loser ran more in
2, the winner ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 0.
Show all 58 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 53 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Savage Swing | -1.00 | 0 | 3 | 0 | |
| Relentless Outburst | +1.00 | 3 | 0 | 0 | |
| Reduce to Ash | -0.67 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Exia Sight | +0.67 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Indiscriminate Gyre | -0.67 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Banner Knight | -0.67 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Dungeon Guide | +0.67 | 2 | 0 | 1 | |
| Dragon's Dawn | -0.67 | 0 | 2 | 1 | |
| Ingress of Sanguine Ire | -0.67 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Under Fire | +0.67 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Heavenly Guide | -0.67 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Zhao Yun, Dragonsblood | -0.67 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Crimson Prescience | +0.67 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Pierce the Heavens | -0.67 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Bring Down the Mighty | -0.67 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Bloodbond Bladesworn | -0.67 | 0 | 2 | 1 | |
| Smoke Bombs | +0.67 | 2 | 0 | 1 | |
| Backup Charger | +0.67 | 2 | 0 | 1 | |
| Life Essence Amulet | -0.67 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Hasty Messenger | -0.67 | 0 | 2 | 1 | |
| Regenerate | -0.67 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Incapacitate | +0.67 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Fang of Dragon's Breath | -0.67 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Viridian Protective Trinket | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Proof of Life | -0.33 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Ignite Fate | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Meltdown | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Executioner's Spear | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Flame-Rune Swordsman | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 2 | |
| Stalwart Shieldmate | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Cremation Ritual | +0.33 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Turbo Charge | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Reprogram | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Safeguard Amulet | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Clumsy Apprentice | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Spirit of Serene Fire | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 2 | |
| Tariff Ring | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Nullifying Mirror | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Library Witch | +0.33 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Enrage | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 2 | |
| Resolute Stand | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Spirit of Fire | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Gentle Respite | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Lavasoul Tiger | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Thunderclap | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Gloamspire, Black Market | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Fast Cure | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Immolation Trap | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fractal of Insight | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Spurn to Ash | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Fervent Lancer | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Flame Sweep | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Potion of Healing | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Blazing Lunge | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| Hemorrhaging Rend | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| Rending Flames | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Honorable Vanguard | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Blanche, Sheltering Saint | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 |