Water AlliesTier 2
at Ascent Christchurch
Pilot Skill ↑ top
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Slimes | 20.3% | 17 | 12-3-2 | 76.5% | 71.4% | 72.9% | +9.0 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 13.3% | 5 | 3-2-0 | 60.0% | 55.6% | 51.9% | +1.1 |
| Wind Allies | 8.2% | 6 | 0-4-2 | 16.7% | 30.0% | 28.4% | -11.5 |
| Wind Razorgale | 7.0% | 4 | 1-2-1 | 37.5% | 43.8% | 42.5% | -4.8 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 6.3% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 48.6% | -1.3 |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 5.7% | 6 | 1-3-2 | 33.3% | 40.0% | 39.4% | -5.7 |
| Fire Exia | 5.1% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 61.5% | +11.1 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 4.4% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 59.5% | +9.2 |
| Fire Aggro | 3.8% | 3 | 3-0-0 | 100.0% | 71.4% | 70.1% | +15.0 |
| Fire Slimes | 3.2% | 2 | 1-0-1 | 75.0% | 58.3% | 60.1% | +9.7 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 2.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Penguin Mill | 1.9% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.0% | +16.1 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 1.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 1.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Cats | 1.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Mage | 1.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Exia | 1.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Astra Cleric | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Hybrid | 0.6% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 35.5% | -23.1 |
| Norm Tera Silvie | 0.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.9% | +11.0 |
| Water Arisanna | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Cleric | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Merlin | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Diana | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Silvie | 0.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.1% | +8.2 |
| Wind Arcane | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Lorraine | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Neos | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Overlord | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Slimes | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Tera Silvie | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 5 from this event
Mirror Analysis
In 2 mirror matches, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 2 mirrors is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 2 mirrors we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 34 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 34 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Song of Frost | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Drifting Rogue | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Sable Remnant | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Mystic Purifier | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Slice and Dice | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Smoke Bombs | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Freezing Hail | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Safeguard Amulet | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Incapacitate | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Viridian Protective Trinket | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Dungeon Guide | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Gildas, Chronicler of Aesa | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Seasprite Diver | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Song of Nurturing | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Inspiring Call | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Scepter of Lumina | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Wind Resonance Bauble | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Extraction Incision | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Tariff Ring | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Poisoned Dagger | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Water Resonance Bauble | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Fire Resonance Bauble | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Zander, Deft Executor | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Woodland Squirrels | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Eye of Argus | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Lost in Thought | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Glacial Evocation | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Mandate of Honor | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Xia Hou Dun, Gloryseeker | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Thieving Cut | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Jueying, Shadowmare | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Frostbind | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Snow Fairy | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Lunete, Frostbinder Priest | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 |