← 12/14 Cat FootPrint Taoyuan Regional
Fire ExiaTier 2
at 12/14 Cat FootPrint Taoyuan Regional
Pilot Skill · average
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Slimes | 18.6% | 14 | 4-8-2 | 35.7% | 38.9% | 48.0% | -0.8 |
| Wind Allies | 10.6% | 7 | 5-2-0 | 71.4% | 63.6% | 65.7% | +7.9 |
| Wind Razorgale | 8.0% | 4 | 2-2-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.2% | +0.1 |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 7.5% | 4 | 0-4-0 | 0.0% | 25.0% | 29.0% | -13.5 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 6.5% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 60.7% | +8.0 |
| Fire Aggro | 5.5% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 44.3% | -9.2 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 5.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Penguin Mill | 5.0% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 37.0% | -12.5 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 4.5% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 46.3% | -5.9 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 3.5% | 2 | 0-1-1 | 25.0% | 41.7% | 47.1% | -2.8 |
| Water Astra Cleric | 3.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.8% | +15.7 |
| Water Allies | 3.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 38.8% | -17.9 |
| Fire Slimes | 2.5% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 35.6% | -13.8 |
| Fire Arcane | 1.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Neos | 1.5% | 2 | 0-1-1 | 25.0% | 41.7% | 43.8% | -6.0 |
| Fire Crux Hybrid | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Fractal | 1.0% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 33.8% | -15.5 |
| Water Tera Mage | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Astra Cleric | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Dawn of Ashes | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Lorraine | 0.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.1% | +14.6 |
| Fire Tera Mage | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Diana | 0.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.8% | +17.2 |
| Water Crux Lorraine | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Merlin | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Diana | 0.5% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 46.7% | -3.2 |
| Wind Beast | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 0.5% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 42.4% | -12.1 |
| Wind Crux Mage | 0.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.4% | +11.9 |
| Wind Exia | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Neos Tonoris | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Diana | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 0.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.9% | +15.9 |
Decklists · 9 from this event
Mirror Analysis
In 1 mirror match, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 1 mirror is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 1 mirror we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 24 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 24 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reduce to Ash | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Staggering Strike | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Blazing Lunge | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Dragon's Dawn | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Proof of Life | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Heated Vengeance | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Crimson Prescience | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Sword of Seeking | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Varuck, Smoldering Spire | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Smoke Bombs | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Gentle Respite | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Flame Sweep | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Gloamspire, Black Market | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Cremation Ritual | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Hasty Messenger | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Safeguard Amulet | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Incapacitate | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Hemorrhaging Rend | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Relentless Outburst | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Rending Flames | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Nullifying Mirror | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Potion of Healing | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Tempered Steel | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Enrage | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 |