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Water Penguin MillTier 1
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Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Slimes | 18.6% | 9 | 5-2-2 | 66.7% | 61.5% | 59.3% | +4.3 |
| Wind Allies | 10.6% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 69.6% | +18.8 |
| Wind Razorgale | 8.0% | 3 | 1-1-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 42.6% | -5.5 |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 7.5% | 11 | 5-4-2 | 54.5% | 53.3% | 49.1% | -0.4 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 6.5% | 9 | 7-1-1 | 83.3% | 73.1% | 71.7% | +10.0 |
| Fire Aggro | 5.5% | 7 | 3-3-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.1% | +0.0 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 5.5% | 3 | 2-0-1 | 83.3% | 64.3% | 63.6% | +10.2 |
| Fire Exia | 4.5% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 63.0% | +12.5 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 4.5% | 10 | 3-6-1 | 35.0% | 39.3% | 42.1% | -3.5 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 3.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Cleric | 3.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 3.0% | 4 | 3-1-0 | 75.0% | 62.5% | 56.7% | +4.3 |
| Fire Slimes | 2.5% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 65.3% | +14.7 |
| Fire Arcane | 1.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Neos | 1.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.0% | +12.9 |
| Fire Crux Hybrid | 1.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.0% | +11.1 |
| Water Fractal | 1.0% | 4 | 3-1-0 | 75.0% | 62.5% | 65.8% | +10.1 |
| Water Tera Mage | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Astra Cleric | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Dawn of Ashes | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Lorraine | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Tera Mage | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Diana | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Lorraine | 0.5% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 46.5% | -5.6 |
| Water Crux Merlin | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Diana | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Beast | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Mage | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Exia | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Neos Tonoris | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Diana | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 10 from this event
Mirror Analysis
In 2 mirror matches, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 2 mirrors is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 2 mirrors we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 23 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 23 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tidestone Bovine | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Cerulean Decree | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Awakened Deacon | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Icebound Slam | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Fractal of Intrusion | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Rimesoul Bishop | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fractal of Snow | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Water Barrier | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Tideholder Claymore | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Ingredient Pouch | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Nullifying Mirror | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Chilling Touch | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Crimson Protective Trinket | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Azure Protective Trinket | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Conjure Downpour | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Blinding Orb | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Song of Frost | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fragmented Spirit of Water | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Revitalizing Cleanse | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Mystic Purifier | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Torrential Blast | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Tariff Ring | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Tidal Lock | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 |