← 12/14 Cat FootPrint Taoyuan Regional
Water Astra ClericTier 2
at 12/14 Cat FootPrint Taoyuan Regional
Pilot Skill ↓ low
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Slimes | 18.6% | 5 | 2-2-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 51.7% | +1.0 |
| Wind Allies | 10.6% | 12 | 5-6-1 | 45.8% | 46.9% | 48.6% | -0.6 |
| Wind Razorgale | 8.0% | 5 | 1-3-1 | 30.0% | 38.9% | 39.5% | -6.0 |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 7.5% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 42.3% | -12.3 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 6.5% | 3 | 0-3-0 | 0.0% | 28.6% | 31.5% | -13.9 |
| Fire Aggro | 5.5% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 44.0% | -9.7 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 5.5% | 4 | 1-3-0 | 25.0% | 37.5% | 43.0% | -4.5 |
| Water Penguin Mill | 5.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Exia | 4.5% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.2% | -15.7 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 4.5% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.7% | -14.9 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 3.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 3.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Slimes | 2.5% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.7% | -14.9 |
| Fire Arcane | 1.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Neos | 1.5% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.9% | -12.9 |
| Fire Crux Hybrid | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Fractal | 1.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 42.3% | -12.3 |
| Water Tera Mage | 1.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.4% | +15.0 |
| Fire Astra Cleric | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Dawn of Ashes | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Lorraine | 0.5% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 39.6% | -16.7 |
| Fire Tera Mage | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Diana | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Lorraine | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Merlin | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Diana | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Beast | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 0.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 63.1% | +20.9 |
| Wind Crux Mage | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Exia | 0.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 61.7% | +18.8 |
| Wind Neos Tonoris | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Diana | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 7 from this event
Mirror Analysis
In 1 mirror match, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 1 mirror is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 1 mirror we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 18 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 18 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Water Resonance Bauble | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Heavenly Guide | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Flash Freeze | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Astarte, Celestial Dawn | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Meteor Strike | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Safeguard Amulet | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Prima Materia | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Water Barrier | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Conjure Downpour | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Dusklight Communion | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Astral Seal | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Mystic Purifier | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Gloamspire Lance | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Aqua Vitae | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Fractal of Intrusion | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Tariff Ring | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Foraging Servant | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Crimson Protective Trinket | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 |