← 12/14 Cat FootPrint Taoyuan Regional
Wind AlliesTier 1
at 12/14 Cat FootPrint Taoyuan Regional
decks
21
(10.6% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
118
56-55-7
overall winrate
50.4%
ELO-adjusted winrate
50.4%
avg ELO +0.1 per match
expected value
48.5%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
48.4%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1270
· median 1243
· range 1084–1536
(21 pilots with an ELO rating)
807
Q1 1171
Q3 1364
1730
29% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
24% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Slimes | 18.6% | 24 | 13-8-3 | 60.4% | 58.9% | 56.5% | +2.4 |
| Wind Razorgale | 8.0% | 7 | 2-5-0 | 28.6% | 36.4% | 37.1% | -6.5 |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 7.5% | 7 | 3-4-0 | 42.9% | 45.5% | 48.4% | -0.8 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 6.5% | 12 | 6-5-1 | 54.2% | 53.1% | 51.0% | +0.4 |
| Fire Aggro | 5.5% | 6 | 3-3-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 55.7% | +3.0 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 5.5% | 7 | 3-4-0 | 42.9% | 45.5% | 41.4% | -4.3 |
| Water Penguin Mill | 5.0% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 30.4% | -18.8 |
| Fire Exia | 4.5% | 7 | 2-5-0 | 28.6% | 36.4% | 34.3% | -7.9 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 4.5% | 6 | 0-6-0 | 0.0% | 20.0% | 30.3% | -10.5 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 3.5% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 66.9% | +16.2 |
| Water Astra Cleric | 3.5% | 12 | 6-5-1 | 54.2% | 53.1% | 51.4% | +0.6 |
| Water Allies | 3.0% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 50.8% | +0.6 |
| Fire Slimes | 2.5% | 6 | 3-3-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 54.0% | +2.2 |
| Fire Arcane | 1.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Neos | 1.5% | 2 | 1-0-1 | 75.0% | 58.3% | 60.8% | +10.3 |
| Fire Crux Hybrid | 1.0% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 51.2% | +1.2 |
| Water Fractal | 1.0% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 51.4% | +2.3 |
| Water Tera Mage | 1.0% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 64.8% | +14.2 |
| Fire Astra Cleric | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Dawn of Ashes | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Lorraine | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Tera Mage | 0.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 61.4% | +18.2 |
| Fire Umbra Diana | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Lorraine | 0.5% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 45.0% | -8.1 |
| Water Crux Merlin | 0.5% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 64.3% | +13.7 |
| Water Umbra Diana | 0.5% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.5% | -15.2 |
| Wind Beast | 0.5% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 49.8% | -0.2 |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Mage | 0.5% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 60.2% | +9.8 |
| Wind Exia | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Neos Tonoris | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Diana | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 0.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 62.8% | +20.4 |
Decklists · 21 from this event
Mirror Analysis
In 4 mirror matches, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 4 mirrors is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
Winners more often ran: Deflecting Edge, Shimmercloak Assassin, Water Resonance Bauble. Losers more often ran: Guan Yu, Prime Exemplar, Oath of the Sakura, Displace.
Deflecting Edge
Winning decks ran 3.0
copies on average,
losing decks 1.2.
Of 4 mirrors: the winner ran more in
3, the loser ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 0.
Shimmercloak Assassin
Winning decks ran 3.5
copies on average,
losing decks 2.0.
Of 4 mirrors: the winner ran more in
2, the loser ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 1.
Water Resonance Bauble
Winning decks ran 0.5
copies on average,
losing decks 0.2.
Of 4 mirrors: the winner ran more in
2, the loser ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 1.
Lurking Assailant
Winning decks ran 3.8
copies on average,
losing decks 2.0.
Of 4 mirrors: the winner ran more in
2, the loser ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 1.
Gildas, Chronicler of Aesa
Winning decks ran 2.0
copies on average,
losing decks 1.0.
Of 4 mirrors: the winner ran more in
2, the loser ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 1.
Windrider Vanguard
Winning decks ran 2.5
copies on average,
losing decks 2.0.
Of 4 mirrors: the winner ran more in
2, the loser ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 1.
Guan Yu, Prime Exemplar
Losing decks ran 1.8
copies on average,
winning decks 0.0.
Of 4 mirrors: the loser ran more in
3, the winner ran more in 0,
both ran the same in 1.
Oath of the Sakura
Losing decks ran 2.5
copies on average,
winning decks 0.5.
Of 4 mirrors: the loser ran more in
3, the winner ran more in 0,
both ran the same in 1.
Displace
Losing decks ran 1.0
copy on average,
winning decks 0.5.
Of 4 mirrors: the loser ran more in
2, the winner ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 1.
Tempest Downfall
Losing decks ran 2.2
copies on average,
winning decks 1.2.
Of 4 mirrors: the loser ran more in
2, the winner ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 1.
Rallied Advance
Losing decks ran 1.2
copies on average,
winning decks 1.0.
Of 4 mirrors: the loser ran more in
2, the winner ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 1.
Verdigris Decree
Losing decks ran 1.8
copies on average,
winning decks 0.8.
Of 4 mirrors: the loser ran more in
2, the winner ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 1.
Show all 82 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 62 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Guan Yu, Prime Exemplar | -0.75 | 0 | 3 | 0 | |
| Oath of the Sakura | -0.75 | 0 | 3 | 0 | |
| Dilu, Auspicious Charger | -0.50 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Reclaim | -0.50 | 0 | 2 | 1 | |
| Aesan Protector | +0.50 | 2 | 0 | 2 | |
| Perse, Relentless Raptor | -0.50 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Evasive Maneuvers | -0.50 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Liu Bei, Oathkeeper | -0.50 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Deflecting Edge | +0.50 | 3 | 1 | 0 | |
| Parcenet, Royal Maid | -0.50 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Winbless Gatekeeper | +0.50 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Nullifying Mirror | -0.50 | 0 | 2 | 2 | |
| Zephyr | +0.50 | 2 | 0 | 2 | |
| Skirting Step | -0.50 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Heavy Swing | +0.50 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Fire Resonance Bauble | +0.50 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Woodland Squirrels | +0.50 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Tonoris, Lone Mercenary | +0.50 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Bulwark Sword | +0.50 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Unrelenting Warden | +0.50 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Concealed Marksman | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Shimmercloak Assassin | +0.25 | 2 | 1 | 1 | |
| Water Resonance Bauble | +0.25 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Seasoned Archer | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Lurking Assailant | +0.25 | 2 | 1 | 1 | |
| Displace | -0.25 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Gildas, Chronicler of Aesa | +0.25 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Tempest Downfall | -0.25 | 1 | 2 | 1 | |
| Diana, Keen Huntress | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Sword of Seeking | +0.25 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Rallied Advance | -0.25 | 1 | 2 | 1 | |
| Windrider Vanguard | +0.25 | 2 | 1 | 1 | |
| Life Essence Amulet | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Hurricane Sweep | +0.25 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Nullifying Lantern | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 3 | |
| Scavenging Raccoon | +0.25 | 2 | 1 | 1 | |
| Second Wind | +0.25 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Trained Hawk | +0.25 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Wind Resonance Bauble | +0.25 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Eternal Magistrate | +0.25 | 2 | 1 | 1 | |
| Ornamental Greatsword | +0.25 | 1 | 0 | 3 | |
| Favorable Winds | +0.25 | 2 | 1 | 1 | |
| Veiled Dash | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Backstep | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Verdigris Decree | -0.25 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Emerald Pistol | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Lorraine, Blademaster | +0.25 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Marksman Captain | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fairy Whispers | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 3 | |
| Incapacitate | -0.25 | 1 | 2 | 1 | |
| Lorraine, Wandering Warrior | -0.25 | 1 | 2 | 1 | |
| Dream Fairy | +0.25 | 2 | 1 | 1 | |
| Take Aim | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Winbless Rangefinder | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Windpiercer | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 2 | |
| Diablerie | +0.25 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Unbroken Mustang | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Attune with the Winds | +0.25 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Vigilant Sentry | +0.25 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Cry for Help | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Inspiring Call | +0.25 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Poisoned Coating Oil | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Brisk Windtrotter | +0.25 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Scatter Essence | +0.25 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Invective Instruction | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Beastbond Ears | +0.25 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Orb of Sealing | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Tithe Proclamation | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Bertha, Spry Howitzer | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Mystic Purifier | +0.25 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Blanche, Sheltering Saint | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Mortal Ambition | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Imperial Recruit | +0.25 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Rose, Eternal Paragon | +0.25 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Windmill Engineer | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Veiling Breeze | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 0 | |
| Stifling Trap | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 2 | |
| Smoke Bombs | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 2 | |
| Andronika, Eternal Herald | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| Safeguard Amulet | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 2 | |
| Prototype Pistol | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| Charged Mannequin | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 |