← 12/14 Cat FootPrint Taoyuan Regional
Water FractalTier 3
at 12/14 Cat FootPrint Taoyuan Regional
decks
2
(1.0% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
16
6-9-1
overall winrate
40.6%
ELO-adjusted winrate
41.3%
avg ELO -3.5 per match
expected value
44.2%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
45.1%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↑ top
mean ELO 1419
· median 1419
· range 1294–1543
(2 pilots with an ELO rating)
807
Q1 1171
Q3 1364
1730
50% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by stronger players — weight the headline winrates accordingly (the ELO-adjusted column already controls for this at the match level).
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Slimes | 18.6% | 3 | 0-3-0 | 0.0% | 28.6% | 33.0% | -12.7 |
| Wind Allies | 10.6% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 48.6% | -2.3 |
| Wind Razorgale | 8.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 7.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.2% | +16.4 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 6.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aggro | 5.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 5.5% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 43.0% | -11.3 |
| Water Penguin Mill | 5.0% | 4 | 1-3-0 | 25.0% | 37.5% | 34.2% | -10.1 |
| Fire Exia | 4.5% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 66.2% | +15.5 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 4.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 3.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Cleric | 3.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.7% | +12.3 |
| Water Allies | 3.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Slimes | 2.5% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 38.2% | -18.8 |
| Fire Arcane | 1.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Neos | 1.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.8% | +12.5 |
| Fire Crux Hybrid | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Mage | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Astra Cleric | 0.5% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 39.4% | -17.0 |
| Fire Dawn of Ashes | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Lorraine | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Tera Mage | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Diana | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Lorraine | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Merlin | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Diana | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Beast | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Mage | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Exia | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Neos Tonoris | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Diana | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 2 from this event
The 2 public Water Fractal decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
