← 12/14 Cat FootPrint Taoyuan Regional
Water Crux LorraineTier 2
at 12/14 Cat FootPrint Taoyuan Regional
decks
1
(0.5% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
8
6-1-1
overall winrate
81.2%
ELO-adjusted winrate
69.0%
avg ELO +9.1 per match
expected value
57.3%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
56.1%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↑ top
mean ELO 1441
· median 1441
· range 1441–1441
(1 pilot with an ELO rating)
807
Q1 1171
Q3 1364
1730
100% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by stronger players — weight the headline winrates accordingly (the ELO-adjusted column already controls for this at the match level).
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Slimes | 18.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Allies | 10.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.0% | +8.1 |
| Wind Razorgale | 8.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 7.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Mage | 6.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.2% | +13.2 |
| Fire Aggro | 5.5% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 66.1% | +15.5 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 5.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.1% | +11.4 |
| Water Penguin Mill | 5.0% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 53.5% | +5.6 |
| Fire Exia | 4.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 4.5% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 45.1% | -7.8 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 3.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Cleric | 3.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 3.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Slimes | 2.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Arcane | 1.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Neos | 1.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Hybrid | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Fractal | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Mage | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Astra Cleric | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Dawn of Ashes | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Lorraine | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Tera Mage | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Diana | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Merlin | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Diana | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Beast | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Mage | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Exia | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Neos Tonoris | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Diana | 0.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.2% | +11.6 |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 1 from this event
The 1 public Water Crux Lorraine decklist from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
