← Grand Archive Regional - Hideout
Fire AggroTier 2
at Grand Archive Regional - Hideout
Pilot Skill · average
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Rile | 52.4% | 44 | 17-22-5 | 44.3% | 44.8% | 50.1% | +0.0 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 12.4% | 10 | 4-5-1 | 45.0% | 46.4% | 49.3% | -0.3 |
| Fire Suzaku | 12.0% | 14 | 5-6-3 | 46.4% | 47.2% | 47.3% | -1.1 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 8.0% | 6 | 3-3-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.2% | +0.1 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 7.2% | 8 | 4-4-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 56.3% | +3.0 |
| Water Allies | 5.6% | 9 | 4-4-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 49.5% | -0.2 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 5.2% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.2% | +0.2 |
| Horse and Taxes | 4.8% | 7 | 3-3-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 55.5% | +2.8 |
| Fire Exia | 4.0% | 4 | 1-3-0 | 25.0% | 37.5% | 44.6% | -3.4 |
| Water Genbu | 3.6% | 4 | 3-0-1 | 87.5% | 68.8% | 72.3% | +14.3 |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 2.8% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.1% | +0.1 |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 2.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 42.9% | -11.4 |
| Water Astra Ranger | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Fractal | 2.0% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 66.4% | +12.3 |
| Wind Allies | 2.0% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 55.4% | +5.1 |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 2.0% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 59.3% | +8.9 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 1.6% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 43.3% | -6.4 |
| Fire Suited | 1.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 51.8% | +2.9 |
| Fire Arcane | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Oblation | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Slimes | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Aetherwing | 0.8% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 42.3% | -12.3 |
| Water Umbra Guardian | 0.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 63.8% | +22.1 |
| Fire Aetherwing | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Slimes | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Cleric | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 0.4% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 51.8% | +3.0 |
| Wind Cats | 0.4% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 53.2% | +3.1 |
| Wind Diana | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Diana | 0.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 62.2% | +19.6 |
Decklists · 13 from this event
Mirror Analysis
In 2 mirror matches (1 draw excluded), here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 2 mirrors is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 2 mirrors we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 60 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 60 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reduce to Ash | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Embercrypt Burn | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Hone by Fire | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Deflecting Edge | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Vengeful Paramour | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Incinerated Templar | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Fiery Momentum | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Sword Saint's Vow | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Fiery Interference | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Censer of Restful Peace | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Vermilion Decree | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Fire Resonance Bauble | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Rile the Abyss | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Under Fire | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Liminal Guide | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Forgelight Blade | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Arthur, Young Heir | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Three of Hearts | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Xiao Qiao, Cinderkeeper | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Backup Charger | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Creative Shock | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Flame Sweep | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Clarent, Reimagined | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Evercurrent Raider | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Hasty Messenger | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Lorraine, Blademaster | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Clumsy Apprentice | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Tariff Ring | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Clarent, Sword of Peace | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Red Hare, Unrivaled Stallion | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Nullifying Mirror | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Huaji of Heaven's Rise | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Expose Darkness | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Cheshire Cat, Impish Grin | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Lurking Assailant | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Smoke Out | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Safeguard Amulet | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Immolation Trap | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| March Hare, Mottled Host | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Esteemed Knight | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Staggering Strike | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Shangxiang, Fierce Princess | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Fluffy Shopkeep | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Sun Ce, Weaponsmaster | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Mortal Ambition | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Demolition | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Nullifying Lantern | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Blinding Orb | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Restorative Flame | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Innervate Fury | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Tempered Steel | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Impact Hammer | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Heated Vengeance | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Undying Dreams | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Grand Crusader's Ring | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Sword of Shadows | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Sword of Seeking | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Inert Sword | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| The Looking Glass | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Rending Flames | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 |