← Grand Archive Regional - Hideout
Fire ExiaTier 2
at Grand Archive Regional - Hideout
Pilot Skill · average
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Rile | 52.4% | 25 | 6-15-4 | 32.0% | 34.5% | 37.9% | -4.5 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 12.4% | 6 | 0-6-0 | 0.0% | 20.0% | 23.6% | -14.1 |
| Fire Suzaku | 12.0% | 4 | 3-1-0 | 75.0% | 62.5% | 55.9% | +3.8 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 8.0% | 4 | 1-3-0 | 25.0% | 37.5% | 39.3% | -6.9 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 7.2% | 7 | 2-2-3 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.5% | +0.3 |
| Water Allies | 5.6% | 5 | 2-3-0 | 40.0% | 44.4% | 48.3% | -1.0 |
| Fire Aggro | 5.2% | 4 | 3-1-0 | 75.0% | 62.5% | 55.4% | +3.4 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 5.2% | 4 | 1-2-1 | 37.5% | 43.8% | 46.3% | -2.4 |
| Horse and Taxes | 4.8% | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 46.2% | -2.8 |
| Water Genbu | 3.6% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.8% | -14.7 |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 2.8% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 48.0% | -1.9 |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 2.0% | 2 | 0-1-1 | 25.0% | 41.7% | 41.6% | -8.0 |
| Water Astra Ranger | 2.0% | 2 | 0-1-1 | 25.0% | 41.7% | 38.2% | -11.3 |
| Water Fractal | 2.0% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 61.4% | +11.0 |
| Wind Allies | 2.0% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 48.2% | -1.8 |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 2.0% | 3 | 0-3-0 | 0.0% | 28.6% | 31.8% | -13.6 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 1.6% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 46.2% | -6.0 |
| Fire Suited | 1.6% | 3 | 1-1-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 45.6% | -3.3 |
| Fire Arcane | 1.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.5% | +13.5 |
| Fire Oblation | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Slimes | 0.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.7% | +10.7 |
| Water Aetherwing | 0.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 52.7% | +4.4 |
| Water Umbra Guardian | 0.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.6% | +17.0 |
| Fire Aetherwing | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Slimes | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Cleric | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 0.4% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 52.5% | +4.0 |
| Wind Cats | 0.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.4% | +16.7 |
| Wind Diana | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Diana | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 10 from this event
The 10 public Fire Exia decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
Mirror Analysis
In 1 mirror match, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 1 mirror is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 1 mirror we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 20 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 20 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Resolute Stand | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Blazing Lunge | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Proof of Life | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Bloodshroud Temper | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Spurn to Ash | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Heavenly Guide | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Grand Crusader's Ring | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Blanche, Sheltering Saint | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Flame Sweep | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Stalwart Shieldmate | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fast Cure | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Evercurrent Raider | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Cremation Ritual | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Safeguard Amulet | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Quicksilver Grail | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Excalibur, Reflected Edge | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Incapacitate | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Hemorrhaging Rend | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Savage Sunder | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Portentous Tanggu | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 |