← Grand Archive Regional - Hideout
Fire SuitedTier 3
at Grand Archive Regional - Hideout
Pilot Skill · average
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Rile | 52.4% | 18 | 5-12-1 | 30.6% | 34.1% | 42.6% | -2.9 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 12.4% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 48.8% | -1.2 |
| Fire Suzaku | 12.0% | 3 | 0-3-0 | 0.0% | 28.6% | 33.5% | -12.3 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 8.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.0% | +11.2 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 7.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.1% | +16.1 |
| Water Allies | 5.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aggro | 5.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 48.2% | -2.9 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 5.2% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 65.2% | +14.6 |
| Horse and Taxes | 4.8% | 4 | 0-4-0 | 0.0% | 25.0% | 35.2% | -9.5 |
| Fire Exia | 4.0% | 3 | 1-1-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 54.4% | +3.3 |
| Water Genbu | 3.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.3% | +16.5 |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 2.8% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.5% | -13.5 |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 2.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 42.2% | -12.5 |
| Water Astra Ranger | 2.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.7% | +14.0 |
| Water Fractal | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Allies | 2.0% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 40.8% | -8.8 |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 2.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 42.6% | -11.8 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 1.6% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 36.0% | -13.5 |
| Fire Arcane | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Oblation | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Slimes | 0.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.5% | +15.1 |
| Water Aetherwing | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Guardian | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aetherwing | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Slimes | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Cleric | 0.4% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 47.1% | -4.6 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Cats | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Diana | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Diana | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 4 from this event
The 4 public Fire Suited decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
Mirror Analysis
In 1 mirror match, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 1 mirror is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 1 mirror we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 28 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 28 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Five of Spades | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Rouge, Ace of Hearts | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Tristan, Underhanded | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Arthur, Young Heir | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Sword of Seeking | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Raised Slash | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Deflecting Edge | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Mortal Ambition | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Backup Charger | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Clarent, Reimagined | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Song of Nurturing | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Inspiring Call | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Sleight of Hand | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Duchess, Six of Hearts | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Ornamental Greatsword | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Verita, Queen of Hearts | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Blinding Orb | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Wonderland's Reign | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Blazing Throw | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Noire, Ace of Spades | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Safeguard Amulet | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Incapacitate | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Clarent, Sword of Peace | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fiery Interference | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Lorraine, Wandering Warrior | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Ashen Riffle | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Poisoned Dagger | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Unyielding Wraithguard | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 |