← Grand Archive Regional - Hideout

Wind ShadowstrikeTier 2

at Grand Archive Regional - Hideout

decks
20 (8.0% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
192 70-92-30
overall winrate
44.3%
ELO-adjusted winrate
50.3% avg ELO +0.1 per match
expected value
45.1% share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
50.0% share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1227 · median 1228 · range 1011–1489 (20 pilots with an ELO rating)
905 Q1 1182 Q3 1372 1685
15% of pilots are in the field's top quartile, 30% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups

Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.

Opponent Their share Matches W-L-D Raw WR Shrunk WR Adj WR ELO Δ/match
Fire Rile 52.4% 74 24-38-12 40.5% 41.0% 48.1% -0.6
Fire Crux Mage 12.4% 20 6-12-2 35.0% 37.5% 45.6% -1.7
Fire Suzaku 12.0% 15 5-5-5 50.0% 50.0% 57.9% +3.2
Wind Seiryuu 7.2% 13 5-3-5 57.7% 55.9% 63.6% +5.7
Water Allies 5.6% 9 4-5-0 44.4% 46.2% 45.1% -2.3
Fire Aggro 5.2% 6 3-3-0 50.0% 50.0% 49.8% -0.1
Fire Luxem Assassin 5.2% 7 3-3-1 50.0% 50.0% 48.3% -0.8
Horse and Taxes 4.8% 5 1-3-1 30.0% 38.9% 40.2% -5.6
Fire Exia 4.0% 4 3-1-0 75.0% 62.5% 60.7% +6.9
Water Genbu 3.6% 5 3-2-0 60.0% 55.6% 57.9% +4.5
Fire Firebloom Burn 2.8% 3 1-2-0 33.3% 42.9% 41.6% -6.3
Fire Umbra Guardian 2.0% 5 0-4-1 10.0% 27.8% 33.5% -9.5
Water Astra Ranger 2.0% 2 2-0-0 100.0% 66.7% 65.4% +14.8
Water Fractal 2.0% 2 0-2-0 0.0% 33.3% 42.9% -6.8
Wind Allies 2.0% 3 2-1-0 66.7% 57.1% 62.5% +9.4
Wind Wakeup Combo 2.0% 4 2-2-0 50.0% 50.0% 50.9% +0.5
Fire Crux Lorraine 1.6% 0
Fire Suited 1.6% 1 0-1-0 0.0% 40.0% 43.0% -11.2
Fire Arcane 1.2% 1 0-0-1 50.0% 50.0% 49.0% -1.6
Fire Oblation 0.8% 2 1-1-0 50.0% 50.0% 56.0% +5.7
Fire Slimes 0.8% 1 0-1-0 0.0% 40.0% 40.7% -14.8
Water Aetherwing 0.8% 1 0-1-0 0.0% 40.0% 39.9% -16.1
Water Umbra Guardian 0.8% 1 1-0-0 100.0% 60.0% 59.4% +15.0
Fire Aetherwing 0.4% 3 2-1-0 66.7% 57.1% 58.8% +6.6
Slimes 0.4% 0
Water Astra Cleric 0.4% 1 0-1-0 0.0% 40.0% 38.0% -19.2
Wind Astra Cleric 0.4% 2 1-0-1 75.0% 58.3% 56.9% +6.7
Wind Cats 0.4% 0
Wind Diana 0.4% 1 1-0-0 100.0% 60.0% 56.2% +9.9
Wind Umbra Diana 0.4% 1 0-0-1 50.0% 50.0% 46.4% -5.8
Decklists · 20 from this event
Mirror Analysis

In 5 mirror matches (1 draw excluded), here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 5 mirrors is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.

Winners more often ran: Crystallized Destiny, Safeguard Amulet, Cleansing Reunion. Losers more often ran: Resolute Stand, Regal Inquisition, Penumbral Waltz.

Played more by winners
Crystallized Destiny
Winning decks ran 1.8 copies on average, losing decks 0.8.
Of 5 mirrors: the winner ran more in 4, the loser ran more in 0, both ran the same in 1.
Safeguard Amulet
Winning decks ran 0.6 copies on average, losing decks 0.2.
Of 5 mirrors: the winner ran more in 3, the loser ran more in 1, both ran the same in 1.
Cleansing Reunion
Winning decks ran 1.6 copies on average, losing decks 1.0.
Of 5 mirrors: the winner ran more in 3, the loser ran more in 2, both ran the same in 0.
Veiling Breeze
Winning decks ran 3.6 copies on average, losing decks 2.8.
Of 5 mirrors: the winner ran more in 2, the loser ran more in 1, both ran the same in 2.
Beseech the Winds
Winning decks ran 0.4 copies on average, losing decks 0.2.
Of 5 mirrors: the winner ran more in 2, the loser ran more in 1, both ran the same in 2.
Purifying Thurible
Winning decks ran 0.8 copies on average, losing decks 0.6.
Of 5 mirrors: the winner ran more in 2, the loser ran more in 1, both ran the same in 2.
Played more by losers
Resolute Stand
Losing decks ran 2.0 copies on average, winning decks 0.4.
Of 5 mirrors: the loser ran more in 3, the winner ran more in 0, both ran the same in 2.
Regal Inquisition
Losing decks ran 2.0 copies on average, winning decks 1.2.
Of 5 mirrors: the loser ran more in 4, the winner ran more in 1, both ran the same in 0.
Penumbral Waltz
Losing decks ran 1.0 copy on average, winning decks 0.2.
Of 5 mirrors: the loser ran more in 4, the winner ran more in 1, both ran the same in 0.
Innervate Agility
Losing decks ran 1.4 copies on average, winning decks 1.0.
Of 5 mirrors: the loser ran more in 3, the winner ran more in 1, both ran the same in 1.
Heavenly Guide
Losing decks ran 1.0 copy on average, winning decks 0.6.
Of 5 mirrors: the loser ran more in 2, the winner ran more in 1, both ran the same in 2.
Turbo Charge
Losing decks ran 0.6 copies on average, winning decks 0.4.
Of 5 mirrors: the loser ran more in 2, the winner ran more in 1, both ran the same in 2.
Show all 36 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 22 held back from the grid above)
Card Edge In winner In loser Same Direction
Crystallized Destiny +0.80 4 0 1
Resolute Stand -0.60 0 3 0
Regal Inquisition -0.60 1 4 0
Penumbral Waltz -0.60 1 4 0
Ensnaring Fumes -0.40 0 2 3
Shadowstrike -0.40 0 2 3
Safeguard Amulet +0.40 3 1 0
Blackmarket Broker +0.40 2 0 2
Staggering Strike -0.40 0 2 0
Zephyr +0.40 2 0 3
Innervate Agility -0.40 1 3 1
Nullifying Lantern -0.40 0 2 0
Cleansing Reunion +0.20 3 2 0
Veiling Breeze +0.20 2 1 2
Heavenly Guide -0.20 1 2 1
Backup Charger +0.20 1 0 3
Turbo Charge -0.20 1 2 1
Dungeon Guide -0.20 0 1 4
Stifling Trap +0.20 1 0 4
Beseech the Winds +0.20 2 1 0
Purifying Thurible +0.20 2 1 2
Dream Fairy +0.20 1 0 4
Morgan, Soul Guide +0.20 1 0 0
Annul Spell -0.20 0 1 0
Eternal Magistrate -0.20 0 1 0
Dusklight Communion -0.20 0 1 0
Smoke Bombs +0.20 1 0 1
Mastermind Scheme +0.00 2 2 1
Reclaim +0.00 1 1 3
Slice and Dice +0.00 1 1 3
Blanche, Sheltering Saint +0.00 1 1 0
Tariff Ring +0.00 1 1 3
Nullifying Mirror +0.00 2 2 1
Tempest Downfall +0.00 1 1 0
Blinding Orb +0.00 1 1 1
Spirelle, Schwartz Queen +0.00 1 1 0

JSON: /api/events/33077/archetypes/Wind Shadowstrike