← Grand Archive Regional - Hideout
Fire Crux MageTier 1
at Grand Archive Regional - Hideout
decks
31
(12.4% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
275
155-87-33
overall winrate
62.4%
ELO-adjusted winrate
60.7%
avg ELO +3.5 per match
expected value
59.5%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
58.9%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1316
· median 1313
· range 1103–1563
(31 pilots with an ELO rating)
905
Q1 1182
Q3 1372
1685
26% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
6% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Rile | 52.4% | 100 | 56-32-12 | 62.0% | 61.5% | 62.0% | +4.0 |
| Fire Suzaku | 12.0% | 28 | 17-10-1 | 62.5% | 60.9% | 62.8% | +4.7 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 8.0% | 20 | 12-6-2 | 65.0% | 62.5% | 54.4% | +1.7 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 7.2% | 14 | 4-9-1 | 32.1% | 36.1% | 44.4% | -2.3 |
| Water Allies | 5.6% | 9 | 6-3-0 | 66.7% | 61.5% | 64.7% | +6.8 |
| Fire Aggro | 5.2% | 10 | 5-4-1 | 55.0% | 53.6% | 50.7% | +0.3 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 5.2% | 14 | 5-7-2 | 42.9% | 44.4% | 44.3% | -2.4 |
| Horse and Taxes | 4.8% | 13 | 7-5-1 | 57.7% | 55.9% | 52.6% | +1.1 |
| Fire Exia | 4.0% | 6 | 6-0-0 | 100.0% | 80.0% | 76.4% | +14.1 |
| Water Genbu | 3.6% | 12 | 4-2-6 | 58.3% | 56.2% | 51.6% | +0.7 |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 2.8% | 8 | 6-1-1 | 81.2% | 70.8% | 60.3% | +4.9 |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 2.0% | 4 | 2-1-1 | 62.5% | 56.2% | 55.3% | +3.4 |
| Water Astra Ranger | 2.0% | 6 | 5-1-0 | 83.3% | 70.0% | 62.9% | +6.9 |
| Water Fractal | 2.0% | 3 | 3-0-0 | 100.0% | 71.4% | 66.5% | +12.3 |
| Wind Allies | 2.0% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 66.8% | +16.2 |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 2.0% | 4 | 3-0-1 | 87.5% | 68.8% | 64.3% | +9.1 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 1.6% | 5 | 2-2-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 49.6% | -0.2 |
| Fire Suited | 1.6% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 51.2% | +1.2 |
| Fire Arcane | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Oblation | 0.8% | 5 | 2-1-2 | 60.0% | 55.6% | 59.9% | +5.7 |
| Fire Slimes | 0.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.0% | +11.2 |
| Water Aetherwing | 0.8% | 5 | 4-0-1 | 90.0% | 72.2% | 64.8% | +8.5 |
| Water Umbra Guardian | 0.8% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 46.1% | -6.2 |
| Fire Aetherwing | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Slimes | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Cleric | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 0.4% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.4% | -15.3 |
| Wind Cats | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Diana | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Diana | 0.4% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 60.7% | +10.3 |
Decklists · 31 from this event
The 31 public Fire Crux Mage decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
Mirror Analysis
In 17 mirror matches (1 draw excluded), here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 4 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down).
Winners more often ran: Incarnate Majesty, Resolute Stand, Reduce to Ash. Losers more often ran: Scatter Essence, Staggering Strike, Fast Cure.
Incarnate Majesty
Winning decks ran 2.8
copies on average,
losing decks 2.4.
Of 17 mirrors: the winner ran more in
8, the loser ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 8.
Resolute Stand
Winning decks ran 3.5
copies on average,
losing decks 3.2.
Of 17 mirrors: the winner ran more in
8, the loser ran more in 3,
both ran the same in 6.
Reduce to Ash
Winning decks ran 2.6
copies on average,
losing decks 2.2.
Of 17 mirrors: the winner ran more in
8, the loser ran more in 4,
both ran the same in 5.
Fluffy Shopkeep
Winning decks ran 3.2
copies on average,
losing decks 2.9.
Of 17 mirrors: the winner ran more in
8, the loser ran more in 4,
both ran the same in 5.
Cremation Ritual
Winning decks ran 2.3
copies on average,
losing decks 2.1.
Of 17 mirrors: the winner ran more in
9, the loser ran more in 5,
both ran the same in 3.
Crux Sight
Winning decks ran 1.2
copies on average,
losing decks 1.1.
Of 17 mirrors: the winner ran more in
7, the loser ran more in 4,
both ran the same in 6.
Scatter Essence
Losing decks ran 0.5
copies on average,
winning decks 0.1.
Of 17 mirrors: the loser ran more in
8, the winner ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 8.
Staggering Strike
Losing decks ran 0.8
copies on average,
winning decks 0.0.
Of 17 mirrors: the loser ran more in
6, the winner ran more in 0,
both ran the same in 11.
Fast Cure
Losing decks ran 1.6
copies on average,
winning decks 0.6.
Of 17 mirrors: the loser ran more in
6, the winner ran more in 2,
both ran the same in 9.
Crystallized Destiny
Losing decks ran 1.7
copies on average,
winning decks 1.3.
Of 17 mirrors: the loser ran more in
5, the winner ran more in 2,
both ran the same in 10.
Safeguard Amulet
Losing decks ran 0.8
copies on average,
winning decks 0.6.
Of 17 mirrors: the loser ran more in
5, the winner ran more in 2,
both ran the same in 10.
Turbo Charge
Losing decks ran 0.2
copies on average,
winning decks 0.1.
Of 17 mirrors: the loser ran more in
3, the winner ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 13.
Show all 60 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 40 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Incarnate Majesty | +0.41 | 8 | 1 | 8 | |
| Scatter Essence | -0.41 | 1 | 8 | 1 | |
| Staggering Strike | -0.35 | 0 | 6 | 0 | |
| Resolute Stand | +0.29 | 8 | 3 | 6 | |
| Reduce to Ash | +0.24 | 8 | 4 | 5 | |
| Fluffy Shopkeep | +0.24 | 8 | 4 | 5 | |
| Fast Cure | -0.24 | 2 | 6 | 1 | |
| Cremation Ritual | +0.24 | 9 | 5 | 3 | |
| Crux Sight | +0.18 | 7 | 4 | 3 | |
| Favorable Winds | -0.18 | 0 | 3 | 0 | |
| Crystallized Destiny | -0.18 | 2 | 5 | 8 | |
| Safeguard Amulet | -0.18 | 2 | 5 | 8 | |
| Regal Inquisition | +0.18 | 5 | 2 | 10 | |
| Library Witch | +0.18 | 6 | 3 | 1 | |
| Galed Erasure | +0.18 | 3 | 0 | 0 | |
| Cheshire Cat, Impish Grin | -0.18 | 0 | 3 | 0 | |
| Spirit of Fire | +0.12 | 6 | 4 | 6 | |
| Heavenly Guide | +0.12 | 5 | 3 | 5 | |
| Liminal Guide | +0.12 | 2 | 0 | 15 | |
| Backup Charger | +0.12 | 2 | 0 | 15 | |
| Inert Sword | +0.12 | 4 | 2 | 11 | |
| Stalwart Shieldmate | +0.12 | 5 | 3 | 9 | |
| Sudden Steel | +0.12 | 6 | 4 | 7 | |
| Hasty Messenger | +0.12 | 6 | 4 | 7 | |
| Turbo Charge | -0.12 | 1 | 3 | 0 | |
| Annul Spell | -0.12 | 1 | 3 | 0 | |
| Tome of Ignorance | +0.12 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Varuckan Acolyte | -0.12 | 1 | 3 | 0 | |
| Morgan, Soul Guide | -0.12 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Fragmented Spirit of Fire | +0.06 | 5 | 4 | 5 | |
| Ghosts of Pendragon | +0.06 | 1 | 0 | 16 | |
| Sword of Shadows | -0.06 | 4 | 5 | 3 | |
| Repelling Palmblast | +0.06 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Flame Sweep | -0.06 | 5 | 6 | 0 | |
| Spirit Blade: Ascension | +0.06 | 2 | 1 | 14 | |
| Drawn Blade | +0.06 | 1 | 0 | 16 | |
| Tariff Ring | -0.06 | 0 | 1 | 16 | |
| Thunderclap | +0.06 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Nullifying Lantern | +0.06 | 4 | 3 | 7 | |
| Smoke Out | +0.06 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Ignite the Soul | +0.06 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Nullifying Mirror | -0.06 | 2 | 3 | 0 | |
| Disintegrate | +0.06 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Spark Alight | +0.06 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Spurn to Ash | +0.06 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Reclaim | +0.06 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Spontaneous Combustion | +0.06 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Rending Flames | +0.06 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Fire Resonance Bauble | -0.06 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Portentous Tanggu | -0.06 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Three of Hearts | -0.06 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Excalibur, Reflected Edge | -0.06 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Duplicitous Replication | -0.06 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Sword of Seeking | +0.00 | 5 | 5 | 5 | |
| Blanche, Sheltering Saint | +0.00 | 4 | 4 | 8 | |
| Evercurrent Raider | +0.00 | 4 | 4 | 9 | |
| Incapacitate | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 0 | |
| Consumption Ring | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 0 | |
| Deflecting Edge | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Restorative Flame | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 |