← Grand Archive Regional - Hideout
Fire Umbra GuardianTier 2
at Grand Archive Regional - Hideout
decks
5
(2.0% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
56
25-23-8
overall winrate
51.8%
ELO-adjusted winrate
53.7%
avg ELO +1.3 per match
expected value
50.1%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
52.3%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1288
· median 1313
· range 1166–1362
(5 pilots with an ELO rating)
905
Q1 1182
Q3 1372
1685
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
20% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Rile | 52.4% | 18 | 7-8-3 | 47.2% | 47.7% | 52.6% | +1.0 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 12.4% | 4 | 1-2-1 | 37.5% | 43.8% | 44.7% | -3.4 |
| Fire Suzaku | 12.0% | 7 | 3-4-0 | 42.9% | 45.5% | 52.0% | +1.0 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 8.0% | 5 | 4-0-1 | 90.0% | 72.2% | 66.5% | +9.5 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 7.2% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 62.5% | +12.0 |
| Water Allies | 5.6% | 4 | 1-3-0 | 25.0% | 37.5% | 39.6% | -6.7 |
| Fire Aggro | 5.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.1% | +11.4 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 5.2% | 2 | 0-1-1 | 25.0% | 41.7% | 40.9% | -8.7 |
| Horse and Taxes | 4.8% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 54.6% | +4.5 |
| Fire Exia | 4.0% | 2 | 1-0-1 | 75.0% | 58.3% | 58.4% | +8.0 |
| Water Genbu | 3.6% | 3 | 1-1-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 51.3% | +0.9 |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 2.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.4% | +15.1 |
| Water Astra Ranger | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Fractal | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Allies | 2.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 39.4% | -16.9 |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 2.0% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 35.8% | -13.6 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suited | 1.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.8% | +12.5 |
| Fire Arcane | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Oblation | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Slimes | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Aetherwing | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Guardian | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aetherwing | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Slimes | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Cleric | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Cats | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Diana | 0.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.1% | +9.8 |
| Wind Umbra Diana | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 5 from this event
The 5 public Fire Umbra Guardian decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
