← Grand Archive Regional - Hideout

Fire Firebloom BurnTier 2

at Grand Archive Regional - Hideout

decks
7 (2.8% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
61 17-42-2
overall winrate
29.5%
ELO-adjusted winrate
40.7% avg ELO -3.2 per match
expected value
35.6% share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
42.5% share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↓ low
mean ELO 1193 · median 1223 · range 915–1431 (7 pilots with an ELO rating)
905 Q1 1182 Q3 1372 1685
14% of pilots are in the field's top quartile, 43% in the bottom. This deck is favored by lower-rated players — its raw winrate may understate how good it is.
Head-to-Head Matchups

Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.

Opponent Their share Matches W-L-D Raw WR Shrunk WR Adj WR ELO Δ/match
Fire Rile 52.4% 21 3-17-1 16.7% 22.0% 33.5% -6.3
Fire Crux Mage 12.4% 8 1-6-1 18.8% 29.2% 39.7% -4.9
Fire Suzaku 12.0% 3 1-2-0 33.3% 42.9% 48.3% -1.3
Wind Shadowstrike 8.0% 3 2-1-0 66.7% 57.1% 58.4% +6.3
Wind Seiryuu 7.2% 4 1-3-0 25.0% 37.5% 46.0% -2.6
Water Allies 5.6% 2 1-1-0 50.0% 50.0% 48.1% -1.9
Fire Aggro 5.2% 2 1-1-0 50.0% 50.0% 49.9% -0.1
Fire Luxem Assassin 5.2% 1 0-1-0 0.0% 40.0% 44.2% -9.3
Horse and Taxes 4.8% 1 0-1-0 0.0% 40.0% 41.4% -13.7
Fire Exia 4.0% 2 1-1-0 50.0% 50.0% 52.0% +1.9
Water Genbu 3.6% 3 2-1-0 66.7% 57.1% 63.4% +10.0
Fire Umbra Guardian 2.0% 1 0-1-0 0.0% 40.0% 40.6% -15.1
Water Astra Ranger 2.0% 1 1-0-0 100.0% 60.0% 59.3% +14.9
Water Fractal 2.0% 1 1-0-0 100.0% 60.0% 63.4% +21.5
Wind Allies 2.0% 1 0-1-0 0.0% 40.0% 41.6% -13.5
Wind Wakeup Combo 2.0% 1 0-1-0 0.0% 40.0% 41.6% -13.5
Fire Crux Lorraine 1.6% 1 0-1-0 0.0% 40.0% 42.8% -11.6
Fire Suited 1.6% 1 1-0-0 100.0% 60.0% 58.5% +13.5
Fire Arcane 1.2% 0
Fire Oblation 0.8% 1 0-1-0 0.0% 40.0% 43.3% -10.7
Fire Slimes 0.8% 0
Water Aetherwing 0.8% 1 0-1-0 0.0% 40.0% 37.0% -20.8
Water Umbra Guardian 0.8% 0
Fire Aetherwing 0.4% 0
Slimes 0.4% 1 1-0-0 100.0% 60.0% 59.0% +14.4
Water Astra Cleric 0.4% 0
Wind Astra Cleric 0.4% 1 0-1-0 0.0% 40.0% 42.8% -11.6
Wind Cats 0.4% 0
Wind Diana 0.4% 0
Wind Umbra Diana 0.4% 0
Decklists · 7 from this event
Mirror Analysis

In 1 mirror match, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 1 mirror is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.

No card differed in at least 3 of the 1 mirror we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.

Show all 25 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 25 held back from the grid above)
Card Edge In winner In loser Same Direction
Ashwick Cremator -1.00 0 1 0
Poisonous Apple +1.00 1 0 0
Vermilion Decree -1.00 0 1 0
Fragmented Spirit of Fire +1.00 1 0 0
Spirit of Fire -1.00 0 1 0
Viridian Protective Trinket -1.00 0 1 0
Volda, Smolder's Spite +1.00 1 0 0
Tether in Flames +1.00 1 0 0
Heated Vengeance -1.00 0 1 0
Forgelight Scepter +1.00 1 0 0
Intensified Pyre +1.00 1 0 0
Fluffy Shopkeep +1.00 1 0 0
Xiao Qiao, Cinderkeeper +1.00 1 0 0
Spark Alight -1.00 0 1 0
Sigil of Budding Embers +1.00 1 0 0
Blazing Throw -1.00 0 1 0
Fiery Interference +1.00 1 0 0
Fanatical Devotee -1.00 0 1 0
Nullifying Mirror -1.00 0 1 0
Fractal of Insight +1.00 1 0 0
Red Hare, Unrivaled Stallion +1.00 1 0 0
Censer of Restful Peace -1.00 0 1 0
Acolyte of Cultivation -1.00 0 1 0
March Hare, Mottled Host +1.00 1 0 0
Impact Hammer -1.00 0 1 0

JSON: /api/events/33077/archetypes/Fire Firebloom Burn