← Grand Archive Regional - Hideout
Water FractalTier 2
at Grand Archive Regional - Hideout
decks
5
(2.0% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
39
10-29-0
overall winrate
25.6%
ELO-adjusted winrate
25.0%
avg ELO -8.8 per match
expected value
35.0%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
33.5%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1282
· median 1266
· range 1182–1408
(5 pilots with an ELO rating)
905
Q1 1182
Q3 1372
1685
20% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
20% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Rile | 52.4% | 16 | 3-13-0 | 18.8% | 25.0% | 24.4% | -10.3 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 12.4% | 3 | 0-3-0 | 0.0% | 28.6% | 33.5% | -12.3 |
| Fire Suzaku | 12.0% | 4 | 2-2-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 40.7% | -5.9 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 8.0% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 57.1% | +6.8 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 7.2% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 51.7% | +1.7 |
| Water Allies | 5.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aggro | 5.2% | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 33.6% | -12.3 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 5.2% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 34.8% | -14.6 |
| Horse and Taxes | 4.8% | 3 | 0-3-0 | 0.0% | 28.6% | 29.4% | -15.3 |
| Fire Exia | 4.0% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 38.6% | -11.0 |
| Water Genbu | 3.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 2.8% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 36.6% | -21.5 |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Ranger | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Allies | 2.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 61.8% | +18.8 |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suited | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Arcane | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Oblation | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Slimes | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Aetherwing | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Guardian | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aetherwing | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Slimes | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Cleric | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Cats | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Diana | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Diana | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 5 from this event
The 5 public Water Fractal decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
