← Grand Archive Regional - Hideout
Water GenbuTier 2
at Grand Archive Regional - Hideout
decks
9
(3.6% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
92
31-42-19
overall winrate
44.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
46.0%
avg ELO -1.3 per match
expected value
47.0%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
48.6%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1292
· median 1256
· range 1151–1491
(9 pilots with an ELO rating)
905
Q1 1182
Q3 1372
1685
22% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
22% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Rile | 52.4% | 36 | 12-15-9 | 45.8% | 46.2% | 48.8% | -0.4 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 12.4% | 12 | 2-4-6 | 41.7% | 43.8% | 48.4% | -0.7 |
| Fire Suzaku | 12.0% | 9 | 3-6-0 | 33.3% | 38.5% | 40.6% | -4.4 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 8.0% | 5 | 2-3-0 | 40.0% | 44.4% | 42.1% | -4.5 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 7.2% | 5 | 3-0-2 | 80.0% | 66.7% | 68.8% | +10.9 |
| Water Allies | 5.6% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 53.9% | +3.7 |
| Fire Aggro | 5.2% | 4 | 0-3-1 | 12.5% | 31.2% | 27.7% | -14.3 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 5.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 43.5% | -10.4 |
| Horse and Taxes | 4.8% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 66.3% | +15.7 |
| Fire Exia | 4.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.2% | +14.7 |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 2.8% | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 36.6% | -10.0 |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 2.0% | 3 | 1-1-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 48.7% | -0.9 |
| Water Astra Ranger | 2.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 61.2% | +18.0 |
| Water Fractal | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Allies | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 2.0% | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 45.5% | -3.3 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 1.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.0% | +14.5 |
| Fire Suited | 1.6% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 39.7% | -16.5 |
| Fire Arcane | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Oblation | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Slimes | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Aetherwing | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Guardian | 0.8% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.5% | -15.1 |
| Fire Aetherwing | 0.4% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.4% | -15.3 |
| Slimes | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Cleric | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Cats | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Diana | 0.4% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 38.2% | -18.9 |
| Wind Umbra Diana | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
