← Grand Archive Regional - Hideout
Fire Luxem AssassinTier 2
at Grand Archive Regional - Hideout
Pilot Skill · average
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Rile | 52.4% | 51 | 21-23-7 | 48.0% | 48.2% | 49.7% | -0.1 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 12.4% | 14 | 7-5-2 | 57.1% | 55.6% | 55.7% | +2.4 |
| Fire Suzaku | 12.0% | 7 | 4-1-2 | 71.4% | 63.6% | 65.0% | +7.5 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 8.0% | 7 | 3-3-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 51.7% | +0.8 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 7.2% | 5 | 0-5-0 | 0.0% | 22.2% | 19.5% | -17.5 |
| Water Allies | 5.6% | 6 | 2-3-1 | 41.7% | 45.0% | 50.1% | +0.0 |
| Fire Aggro | 5.2% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 49.8% | -0.2 |
| Horse and Taxes | 4.8% | 8 | 0-8-0 | 0.0% | 16.7% | 20.2% | -14.3 |
| Fire Exia | 4.0% | 4 | 2-1-1 | 62.5% | 56.2% | 53.7% | +2.4 |
| Water Genbu | 3.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.5% | +10.4 |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 2.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.8% | +9.3 |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 2.0% | 2 | 1-0-1 | 75.0% | 58.3% | 59.1% | +8.7 |
| Water Astra Ranger | 2.0% | 3 | 3-0-0 | 100.0% | 71.4% | 66.1% | +12.0 |
| Water Fractal | 2.0% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 65.2% | +14.6 |
| Wind Allies | 2.0% | 3 | 1-1-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 49.0% | -0.8 |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 2.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.2% | +13.2 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 1.6% | 5 | 0-3-2 | 20.0% | 33.3% | 37.7% | -7.1 |
| Fire Suited | 1.6% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 34.8% | -14.6 |
| Fire Arcane | 1.2% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 65.6% | +15.0 |
| Fire Oblation | 0.8% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 44.1% | -9.4 |
| Fire Slimes | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Aetherwing | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Guardian | 0.8% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 47.0% | -4.9 |
| Fire Aetherwing | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Slimes | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Cleric | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Cats | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Diana | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Diana | 0.4% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 38.9% | -17.8 |
Decklists · 13 from this event
Mirror Analysis
In 1 mirror match (1 draw excluded), here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 1 mirror is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 1 mirror we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 17 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 17 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reduce to Ash | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Uncover the Plot | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Planted Explosive | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Heavenly Guide | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Grand Crusader's Ring | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Excalibur, Cleansing Light | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Art of War | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Blanche, Sheltering Saint | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fast Cure | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Evercurrent Raider | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Blinding Orb | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Exploit Vulnerability | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Safeguard Amulet | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Quicksilver Grail | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Thieving Cut | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Juggle Knives | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Regal Inquisition | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 |