← Grand Archive Regional - Hideout

Fire Luxem AssassinTier 2

at Grand Archive Regional - Hideout

decks
13 (5.2% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
129 52-59-18
overall winrate
47.3%
ELO-adjusted winrate
48.6% avg ELO -0.5 per match
expected value
49.2% share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
50.0% share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1330 · median 1388 · range 1123–1484 (13 pilots with an ELO rating)
905 Q1 1182 Q3 1372 1685
54% of pilots are in the field's top quartile, 15% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups

Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.

Opponent Their share Matches W-L-D Raw WR Shrunk WR Adj WR ELO Δ/match
Fire Rile 52.4% 51 21-23-7 48.0% 48.2% 49.7% -0.1
Fire Crux Mage 12.4% 14 7-5-2 57.1% 55.6% 55.7% +2.4
Fire Suzaku 12.0% 7 4-1-2 71.4% 63.6% 65.0% +7.5
Wind Shadowstrike 8.0% 7 3-3-1 50.0% 50.0% 51.7% +0.8
Wind Seiryuu 7.2% 5 0-5-0 0.0% 22.2% 19.5% -17.5
Water Allies 5.6% 6 2-3-1 41.7% 45.0% 50.1% +0.0
Fire Aggro 5.2% 2 1-1-0 50.0% 50.0% 49.8% -0.2
Horse and Taxes 4.8% 8 0-8-0 0.0% 16.7% 20.2% -14.3
Fire Exia 4.0% 4 2-1-1 62.5% 56.2% 53.7% +2.4
Water Genbu 3.6% 1 1-0-0 100.0% 60.0% 56.5% +10.4
Fire Firebloom Burn 2.8% 1 1-0-0 100.0% 60.0% 55.8% +9.3
Fire Umbra Guardian 2.0% 2 1-0-1 75.0% 58.3% 59.1% +8.7
Water Astra Ranger 2.0% 3 3-0-0 100.0% 71.4% 66.1% +12.0
Water Fractal 2.0% 2 2-0-0 100.0% 66.7% 65.2% +14.6
Wind Allies 2.0% 3 1-1-1 50.0% 50.0% 49.0% -0.8
Wind Wakeup Combo 2.0% 1 1-0-0 100.0% 60.0% 58.2% +13.2
Fire Crux Lorraine 1.6% 5 0-3-2 20.0% 33.3% 37.7% -7.1
Fire Suited 1.6% 2 0-2-0 0.0% 33.3% 34.8% -14.6
Fire Arcane 1.2% 2 2-0-0 100.0% 66.7% 65.6% +15.0
Fire Oblation 0.8% 1 0-1-0 0.0% 40.0% 44.1% -9.4
Fire Slimes 0.8% 0
Water Aetherwing 0.8% 0
Water Umbra Guardian 0.8% 1 0-1-0 0.0% 40.0% 47.0% -4.9
Fire Aetherwing 0.4% 0
Slimes 0.4% 0
Water Astra Cleric 0.4% 0
Wind Astra Cleric 0.4% 0
Wind Cats 0.4% 0
Wind Diana 0.4% 0
Wind Umbra Diana 0.4% 1 0-1-0 0.0% 40.0% 38.9% -17.8
Decklists · 13 from this event
Mirror Analysis

In 1 mirror match (1 draw excluded), here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 1 mirror is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.

No card differed in at least 3 of the 1 mirror we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.

Show all 17 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 17 held back from the grid above)
Card Edge In winner In loser Same Direction
Reduce to Ash +1.00 1 0 0
Uncover the Plot -1.00 0 1 0
Planted Explosive +1.00 1 0 0
Heavenly Guide +1.00 1 0 0
Grand Crusader's Ring +1.00 1 0 0
Excalibur, Cleansing Light +1.00 1 0 0
Art of War -1.00 0 1 0
Blanche, Sheltering Saint -1.00 0 1 0
Fast Cure +1.00 1 0 0
Evercurrent Raider -1.00 0 1 0
Blinding Orb +1.00 1 0 0
Exploit Vulnerability -1.00 0 1 0
Safeguard Amulet -1.00 0 1 0
Quicksilver Grail -1.00 0 1 0
Thieving Cut -1.00 0 1 0
Juggle Knives +1.00 1 0 0
Regal Inquisition +1.00 1 0 0

JSON: /api/events/33077/archetypes/Fire Luxem Assassin