← Grand Archive Regional - Hideout
Fire SuzakuTier 1
at Grand Archive Regional - Hideout
decks
30
(12.0% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
267
123-122-22
overall winrate
50.2%
ELO-adjusted winrate
47.5%
avg ELO -0.8 per match
expected value
48.3%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
46.3%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1323
· median 1289
· range 909–1685
(30 pilots with an ELO rating)
905
Q1 1182
Q3 1372
1685
37% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
13% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Rile | 52.4% | 107 | 44-54-9 | 45.3% | 45.5% | 43.6% | -2.1 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 12.4% | 28 | 10-17-1 | 37.5% | 39.1% | 37.2% | -4.7 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 8.0% | 15 | 5-5-5 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 42.1% | -3.2 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 7.2% | 14 | 8-6-0 | 57.1% | 55.6% | 56.8% | +2.8 |
| Water Allies | 5.6% | 14 | 7-6-1 | 53.6% | 52.8% | 52.3% | +1.0 |
| Fire Aggro | 5.2% | 14 | 6-5-3 | 53.6% | 52.8% | 52.7% | +1.1 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 5.2% | 7 | 1-4-2 | 28.6% | 36.4% | 35.0% | -7.5 |
| Horse and Taxes | 4.8% | 8 | 4-3-1 | 56.2% | 54.2% | 44.2% | -2.8 |
| Fire Exia | 4.0% | 4 | 1-3-0 | 25.0% | 37.5% | 44.1% | -3.8 |
| Water Genbu | 3.6% | 9 | 6-3-0 | 66.7% | 61.5% | 59.4% | +4.4 |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 2.8% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 51.7% | +1.3 |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 2.0% | 7 | 4-3-0 | 57.1% | 54.5% | 48.0% | -1.0 |
| Water Astra Ranger | 2.0% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 53.4% | +2.6 |
| Water Fractal | 2.0% | 4 | 2-2-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 59.3% | +5.9 |
| Wind Allies | 2.0% | 9 | 5-4-0 | 55.6% | 53.8% | 57.8% | +3.6 |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 2.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.1% | +11.3 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 1.6% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 46.8% | -3.1 |
| Fire Suited | 1.6% | 3 | 3-0-0 | 100.0% | 71.4% | 66.5% | +12.3 |
| Fire Arcane | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Oblation | 0.8% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 53.0% | +2.2 |
| Fire Slimes | 0.8% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 47.6% | -2.3 |
| Water Aetherwing | 0.8% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 48.2% | -1.8 |
| Water Umbra Guardian | 0.8% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 65.1% | +14.5 |
| Fire Aetherwing | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Slimes | 0.4% | 4 | 3-1-0 | 75.0% | 62.5% | 57.0% | +4.5 |
| Water Astra Cleric | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 0.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 61.2% | +17.9 |
| Wind Cats | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Diana | 0.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 54.6% | +7.3 |
| Wind Umbra Diana | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 30 from this event
The 30 public Fire Suzaku decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
Mirror Analysis
In 14 mirror matches, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down).
Winners more often ran: Staggering Strike, Liminal Guide, Restorative Flame. Losers more often ran: Fire Resonance Bauble, Wind Resonance Bauble, March Hare, Mottled Host.
Staggering Strike
Winning decks ran 2.4
copies on average,
losing decks 1.0.
Of 14 mirrors: the winner ran more in
8, the loser ran more in 2,
both ran the same in 4.
Liminal Guide
Winning decks ran 3.7
copies on average,
losing decks 2.2.
Of 14 mirrors: the winner ran more in
6, the loser ran more in 0,
both ran the same in 8.
Restorative Flame
Winning decks ran 2.9
copies on average,
losing decks 1.8.
Of 14 mirrors: the winner ran more in
7, the loser ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 6.
Resolute Stand
Winning decks ran 1.8
copies on average,
losing decks 0.8.
Of 14 mirrors: the winner ran more in
7, the loser ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 6.
Banned
Rile the Abyss
Winning decks ran 3.7
copies on average,
losing decks 2.3.
Of 14 mirrors: the winner ran more in
5, the loser ran more in 0,
both ran the same in 9.
Undying Dreams
Winning decks ran 3.7
copies on average,
losing decks 2.3.
Of 14 mirrors: the winner ran more in
5, the loser ran more in 0,
both ran the same in 9.
Fire Resonance Bauble
Losing decks ran 0.6
copies on average,
winning decks 0.1.
Of 14 mirrors: the loser ran more in
7, the winner ran more in 0,
both ran the same in 7.
Wind Resonance Bauble
Losing decks ran 0.5
copies on average,
winning decks 0.1.
Of 14 mirrors: the loser ran more in
6, the winner ran more in 0,
both ran the same in 8.
March Hare, Mottled Host
Losing decks ran 1.7
copies on average,
winning decks 0.3.
Of 14 mirrors: the loser ran more in
5, the winner ran more in 0,
both ran the same in 9.
Arthur, Young Heir
Losing decks ran 1.7
copies on average,
winning decks 0.3.
Of 14 mirrors: the loser ran more in
5, the winner ran more in 0,
both ran the same in 9.
Xiao Qiao, Cinderkeeper
Losing decks ran 1.6
copies on average,
winning decks 0.3.
Of 14 mirrors: the loser ran more in
5, the winner ran more in 0,
both ran the same in 9.
Red Hare, Unrivaled Stallion
Losing decks ran 1.7
copies on average,
winning decks 0.3.
Of 14 mirrors: the loser ran more in
5, the winner ran more in 0,
both ran the same in 9.
Show all 66 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 46 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Resonance Bauble | -0.50 | 0 | 7 | 1 | |
| Staggering Strike | +0.43 | 8 | 2 | 2 | |
| Liminal Guide | +0.43 | 6 | 0 | 7 | |
| Wind Resonance Bauble | -0.43 | 0 | 6 | 1 | |
| Restorative Flame | +0.43 | 7 | 1 | 5 | |
| Resolute Stand | +0.43 | 7 | 1 | 1 | |
| March Hare, Mottled Host | -0.36 | 0 | 5 | 1 | |
| Rile the Abyss | +0.36 | 5 | 0 | 8 | |
| Undying Dreams | +0.36 | 5 | 0 | 8 | |
| Arthur, Young Heir | -0.36 | 0 | 5 | 1 | |
| Xiao Qiao, Cinderkeeper | -0.36 | 0 | 5 | 1 | |
| Shatter the Brittle | +0.36 | 6 | 1 | 6 | |
| Guo Jia, Blessed Scion | +0.36 | 5 | 0 | 8 | |
| Red Hare, Unrivaled Stallion | -0.36 | 0 | 5 | 1 | |
| Suzaku's Command | +0.36 | 7 | 2 | 4 | |
| Heated Vengeance | -0.29 | 1 | 5 | 8 | |
| Embercrypt Burn | +0.29 | 5 | 1 | 8 | |
| Rococo, Explosive Maven | -0.29 | 0 | 4 | 1 | |
| Intensified Pyre | -0.29 | 4 | 8 | 1 | |
| Cinder Geyser | -0.29 | 0 | 4 | 0 | |
| Demolition | +0.29 | 5 | 1 | 8 | |
| Creative Shock | +0.29 | 4 | 0 | 9 | |
| Dazzling Courtesan | -0.29 | 0 | 4 | 1 | |
| Fiery Interference | +0.29 | 4 | 0 | 10 | |
| Focused Flames | +0.29 | 4 | 0 | 1 | |
| Reduce to Ash | -0.21 | 0 | 3 | 1 | |
| Sword of Seeking | -0.21 | 1 | 4 | 9 | |
| Guo Jia, Heaven's Favored | +0.21 | 4 | 1 | 1 | |
| Three of Hearts | +0.21 | 6 | 3 | 4 | |
| Ignis Deus | -0.21 | 1 | 4 | 0 | |
| Viridian Protective Trinket | +0.14 | 3 | 1 | 4 | |
| Smoke Out | -0.14 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Blazing Throw | -0.14 | 2 | 4 | 8 | |
| Crystallized Destiny | +0.14 | 4 | 2 | 0 | |
| Nullifying Mirror | +0.14 | 2 | 0 | 12 | |
| Dire Requiem | -0.14 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Coronation Ceremony | +0.14 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Water Resonance Bauble | -0.14 | 1 | 3 | 0 | |
| Dungeon Guide | +0.07 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Under Fire | -0.07 | 3 | 4 | 3 | |
| Vengeful Paramour | +0.07 | 6 | 5 | 2 | |
| Flamewreath Call | +0.07 | 6 | 5 | 2 | |
| Safeguard Amulet | -0.07 | 0 | 1 | 13 | |
| Censer of Restful Peace | +0.07 | 1 | 0 | 13 | |
| Expose Darkness | -0.07 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Blanche, Sheltering Saint | +0.07 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Blinding Orb | +0.07 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Nullifying Lantern | -0.07 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Beastbond Boots | -0.07 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Regal Inquisition | +0.07 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Spurn to Ash | -0.07 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Backup Charger | -0.07 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Hasty Messenger | -0.07 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Turbo Charge | -0.07 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Poisoned Dagger | -0.07 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Blazing Bowman | -0.07 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Evercurrent Raider | -0.07 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Coiled Fatestone | -0.07 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fatestone of Unrelenting | -0.07 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Surging Bolt | -0.07 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Lavaplume Fatestone | -0.07 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Brackish Lutist | -0.07 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Peppered Chef | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 12 | |
| Fluffy Shopkeep | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| Spark Alight | +0.00 | 5 | 5 | 2 | |
| Executioner's Spear | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 |