← Grand Archive Regional - Hideout
Fire Crux LorraineTier 2
at Grand Archive Regional - Hideout
decks
4
(1.6% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
45
24-13-8
overall winrate
62.2%
ELO-adjusted winrate
56.5%
avg ELO +2.3 per match
expected value
56.2%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
53.7%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↑ top
mean ELO 1401
· median 1417
· range 1193–1577
(4 pilots with an ELO rating)
905
Q1 1182
Q3 1372
1685
50% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by stronger players — weight the headline winrates accordingly (the ELO-adjusted column already controls for this at the match level).
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Rile | 52.4% | 17 | 9-4-4 | 64.7% | 61.9% | 57.0% | +2.8 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 12.4% | 5 | 2-2-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.4% | +0.2 |
| Fire Suzaku | 12.0% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 53.2% | +3.1 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 8.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Seiryuu | 7.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 44.0% | -9.6 |
| Water Allies | 5.6% | 4 | 1-3-0 | 25.0% | 37.5% | 41.6% | -5.4 |
| Fire Aggro | 5.2% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 56.7% | +6.4 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 5.2% | 5 | 3-0-2 | 80.0% | 66.7% | 62.3% | +7.1 |
| Horse and Taxes | 4.8% | 3 | 1-1-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 45.0% | -3.7 |
| Fire Exia | 4.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 53.8% | +6.0 |
| Water Genbu | 3.6% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.0% | -14.5 |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 2.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.2% | +11.6 |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Ranger | 2.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.0% | +11.2 |
| Water Fractal | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Allies | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suited | 1.6% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 64.0% | +13.5 |
| Fire Arcane | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Oblation | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Slimes | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Aetherwing | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Guardian | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aetherwing | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Slimes | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Cleric | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Cats | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Diana | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Diana | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
