Fire Crux MageTier 2
at 台中 Regional
Pilot Skill · average
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Shadowstrike | 11.2% | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 44.8% | -3.9 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 8.9% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 48.8% | -1.1 |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 6.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 61.5% | +18.3 |
| Fire Suzaku | 5.9% | 3 | 3-0-0 | 100.0% | 71.4% | 65.9% | +11.9 |
| Fire Suited | 5.3% | 3 | 3-0-0 | 100.0% | 71.4% | 65.1% | +11.3 |
| Water Umbra Guardian | 5.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 46.0% | -6.4 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 4.7% | 4 | 2-2-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 49.7% | -0.2 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 4.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aggro | 4.1% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 56.9% | +5.2 |
| Water Genbu | 4.1% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 46.9% | -5.0 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 4.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Aetherwing | 3.6% | 2 | 1-0-1 | 75.0% | 58.3% | 57.0% | +6.7 |
| Water Fractal | 3.6% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 43.3% | -6.5 |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 3.6% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 44.9% | -8.1 |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 3.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Allies | 3.0% | 2 | 1-0-1 | 75.0% | 58.3% | 63.2% | +12.6 |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 2.4% | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 41.8% | -6.1 |
| Water Allies | 2.4% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 42.6% | -11.9 |
| Slimes | 1.2% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 65.8% | +15.2 |
| Water Astra Ranger | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Mage | 1.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.6% | +13.7 |
| Wind Luxem Zander | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aetherwing | 0.6% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 37.5% | -19.9 |
| Fire Exia | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Genbu | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Oblation | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Tera Mage | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Ciel | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Beast | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Lorraine | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Neos | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Ranger | 0.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.1% | +9.7 |
| Wind Arcane | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Diana | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Slice & Dice | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 5 from this event
Mirror Analysis
In 2 mirror matches, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 2 mirrors is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 2 mirrors we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 42 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 42 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Incarnate Majesty | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Heavenly Guide | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Sword of Shadows | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Flame-Rune Swordsman | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Flame Sweep | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Stalwart Shieldmate | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Sudden Steel | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fast Cure | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Spirit Blade: Ascension | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Consumption Ring | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Library Witch | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Reduce to Ash | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Reckoning's Wake | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Demolition | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Crux Sight | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Incapacitate | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Rending Flames | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Chilling Touch | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Resolute Stand | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Water Resonance Bauble | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fire Resonance Bauble | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Staggering Strike | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Cheshire Cat, Impish Grin | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Undying Dreams | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Liminal Guide | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Unyielding Wraithguard | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Sword of Seeking | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Three of Hearts | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fluffy Shopkeep | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Blanche, Sheltering Saint | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Backup Charger | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Nullifying Lantern | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Wind Resonance Bauble | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Cremation Ritual | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Ignite the Soul | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Spark Alight | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Hasty Messenger | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Turbo Charge | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Crystallized Destiny | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Safeguard Amulet | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Regal Inquisition | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Tempered Steel | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 |